Donald Trump began 2022 on a high. Republican candidates were flocking to Florida to court the former president for a coveted endorsement. His rallies were drawing thousands. A bevy of investigations remained largely under the radar. One year later, Trump is facing a very different reality.
He is mired in criminal investigations that could end with indictments and has been blamed for the Republicans' disappointing performance in the US' midterm elections.
And while he is now a declared presidential candidate, the six weeks since he announced have been marked by self-inflicted crises. Trump has not held a single campaign event and he barely leaves the confines of his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida.
Instead of staving off challengers, his potential 2024 rivals appear ever more emboldened. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, fresh off a resounding re-election victory, is increasingly seen as Trump’s most formidable competition.
Trump's subdued campaign announcement has left even former stalwarts wondering whether he is serious about another run for the White House.
"There was a movie called Failure to Launch. I think that’s what Donald Trump's process of running has been so far," said Michael Biundo, a GOP operative who advised Trump's 2016 campaign but is steering clear this time.
"He had the announcement, and he hasn’t done anything to back it up since then."
Trump gave a speech at Mar-a-Lago where he announced his new presidential bid. (Source: 1News)
"What campaign?" asked longtime GOP donor Dan Eberhart, who gave $100,000 to Trump's 2020 reelection effort but is now gravitating to DeSantis.
"Trump’s early launch seems more a reaction to DeSantis’ overperformance and a legal strategy against prosecution than a political campaign."
Trump campaign officials insist they have been spending the weeks since his November announcement methodically building out a political operation.
They note Trump announced just before the holiday season, when politicians typically lie low, and he did so unusually early, giving him plenty of time to ramp up.
"This is a marathon and our game plan is being implemented by design," said Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung.
"We’re also assembling top-level teams in early voting states and expanding our massive data operation to ensure we dominate on all fronts," he said.
"We are not going to play the media’s game that tries to dictate how we campaign."
Trump also defended criticism of his campaign's slow start. "The Rallies will be bigger and better than ever (because our Country is going to Hell), but it’s a little bit early, don’t you think?" he wrote on his social media site.
While he has eschewed campaign events, the former president has nonetheless courted controversy.
There was his dinner with a white nationalist and the rapper formerly known as Kanye West, who has been spouting antisemitic tropes and conspiracies; his suggestions that parts of the Constitution be terminated to return him to power; and the "major announcement" that turned out to be the launch of $99 digital trading cards that do not benefit his campaign.
Trump supporters stormed Congress, with five people dying in the violence. He denies any wrongdoing. (Source: 1News)
Since his announcement, he has also faced a series of legal losses, including the appointment of a special counsel to oversee an investigation into the presence of classified documents at his estate as well as key aspects of a separate inquiry involving Trump's efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
Trump's namesake company was convicted of tax fraud last month for helping executives dodge taxes on extravagant perks. In Georgia, a special grand jury appears to be wrapping up its work investigating his efforts to remain in power.
Trump's potential rivals have spent months laying the groundwork for their own campaigns, visiting early-voting states, speaking before conservative groups and building the kinds of relationships that could benefit them down the line.
Despite his vulnerabilities, Trump remains the early GOP front-runner. While he is seen as potentially beatable in a one-on-one matchup, he is likely to benefit from a crowded field that splits the anti-Trump votes, just as he did when he ran and won in 2016.
But Biundo, the former Trump campaign adviser, said that after watching likely candidates such as Pence pay visits to early voting states, he too, believes the field is wide open.
"I don't think Donald Trump has it locked up. I don’t think Ron DeSantis has it locked up. I don’t think anyone has it locked up," he said. "At this point, it's an open primary."
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