NIWA and MetService have released their tropical cyclone outlook for the coming season which falls between November 2022 and April 2023.
The weather agencies have predicted six to 10 named tropical cyclones could form in the Southwest Pacific this season.
This falls into the "near normal" range for a tropical cyclone season.
However, the agencies warn: "At least three severe tropical cyclones reaching Category 3 or higher might occur anywhere across the Pacific region, so all communities should remain prepared."
The risk of a tropical cyclone reaching New Zealand is "near normal to elevated".
"On average, at least one ex-tropical cyclone passes within 550 km of New Zealand each year.
"If an ex-tropical cyclone comes close to the country, there is a near equal probability of it tracking to either the east or west of the North Island, and landfall of a degrading ex-tropical cyclone is possible."
The forecasters also warn of the potential for more severe tropical cyclones in this season and into the future.
"We note that there has been a trend toward fewer, but stronger tropical cyclones since quality observations began in the early 1970s, and because of those trends one of the expected severe cyclones for this season could reach Category 5 strength.
"Therefore, all communities should remain alert and well-prepared for severe events. New Zealand should also remain vigilant as the season unfolds."
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