A Covid-19 modeller thinks cases of the virus in Canterbury have peaked.
University of Canterbury Professor Michael Plank told Breakfast cases in the region were lower so far this week.
He explained when compared to the same day a week ago, case numbers on Tuesday had been lower - 2816 compared with 3488.
Plank added case numbers tend to be low on weekends and bounce up on a Tuesday, so looking at the same day a week ago is a good way to get a sense of the trend in numbers.
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He said it was hard to decipher otherwise.
Plank said Auckland and Canterbury were at quite different stages of the outbreak, as Auckland had a very high peak and had peaked about three weeks ago.
"I think we've been a bit surprised as well by the extent to which it has differed in the regions in terms of the timing," Plank reflected.
"We've seen a wave moving down the country through the main centres and then sort of spreading out into the more regional areas."
Although he thought cases in Canterbury had peaked, Plank said hospitalisations in the region will likely continue to rise for another week or so.
Sixty-four people were in hospital with the virus in the region on Tuesday, compared with 56 last Tuesday.
Nationally Plank said the country will "unfortunately" continue to see Covid-related deaths. He thought there would be 10-12 per day for the next few weeks before they "hopefully" start to taper off.
The Ministry of Health announced on Tuesday 34 Covid-related deaths had occurred in the past 10 days.
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