MetService says the latest data shows Cyclone Cody will likely track past the East Cape on Monday, with “hazardous marine conditions” expected for parts of the North Island.
The latest data on Friday afternoon shows the cyclone impacting the northeast of the North Island on Monday and into early Tuesday.
However, the cyclone will be generating “large easterly swells” which will affect eastern coastlines of the North Island from Saturday through to Tuesday. MetService says “hazardous waves and rip currents are likely”.
Although the centre of the cyclone may track east of the North Island, there will be impacts to parts of New Zealand away from the centre.
Lewis Ferris, MetService Meteorologist, says the “cone of uncertainty” is still "relatively large" as to when the system will get closest to New Zealand, and there is “current wiggle room in the exact track”.
Where heavy rain and strong winds will impact the most depends on the cyclone’s predicted track over the next few days.
“It is worth noting that people outside of the severe weather watch areas should also be checking in with the latest forecasts as this cyclone has the potential to bring adverse weather outside the current watch areas – especially if the track tends westward,” says Ferris.
“This is especially true of coastal conditions around the eastern facing North Island.”
A Heavy Rain Watch has been issued for Gisborne and the Wairoa District, as well as a Strong Wind Watch for northern Gisborne and eastern Bay of Plenty, both starting at midnight on Sunday.