1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Judith Collins plunges to lowest approval rating and no Budget boost for Govt

Source: 1News

Judith Collins' approval rating has plunged to the National Party leader's worst result, sitting at -19, down from +9 in December. However, National has seen a small rise in party support.

Labour, still comfortably out ahead, has not seen a post-Budget boost, instead receiving a slight drop in the first 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll since the 2021 Budget.

Party support:
Labour Party: 46% (down 3%)
National Party: 29% (up 2%)
ACT: 9% (up 1%)
Green Party: 8% (down 1%)
Māori Party: 2%
TOP: 2% (up 1%)
New Conservative: 1%
New Zealand First: 1% (down 1%)

Don’t know: 6%
Refused: 2%
*Percentages do not add to 100 due to rounding.

The latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll - May 2021.

The 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll result showed Labour's support dip to 46%, still a sizeable lead over over National on 29%.

The latest poll is the first since Budget 2021 was released last week, with its lift to benefit rates, a $1 billion investment into Māori, and funding allocated to the incoming health reforms.

The Government also faced criticism that there was not enough funding allocated for Pharmac to buy life-saving drugs or into mental health. The Government also faced disapproval over its extension of the public sector pay freeze.

National leader Judith Collins said today's poll numbers showed "the Government didn't get any bounce at all from the Budget". 

She said National was "starting to slowly come up, but we've got a lot more work to do".

"We just have to keep on going, keep doing the work and keep talking about the things that people think are important."

1 NEWS last polled in March , where Labour sat at 49% support, with National lagging at 27%.

On Labour's 46% result, Jacinda Ardern said, "to see we have the support of such a large number of New Zealanders, I do take heart from that". 

"At the same time, we're constantly working hard to make sure we're bringing all New Zealand with us in our recovery. 

"To see we have the support of such a large number of New Zealanders, I do take heart from that," Ardern said.

Judith Collins' approval rating

Despite National's 2% rise – its leader did not see the support reflected in approval ratings.

Judith Collins approval rating, May 2021.

Collins' approval rating has plunged to -19, by far the worst result the National Party has received.

Approval ratings are calculated by the amount of people who approve of Collins' performance as National leader, minus the amount of people who disapprove.

Thirty per cent of people approved of the way Collins was handling her job as leader of the National Party, while 49% disapproved – giving her an approval rating of -19.

Twenty per cent of people either did not know if they approved or disapproved or refused to answer.

Collins' rating of -19 was a sharp fall from the December 2020 poll, where she sat at +9. This is the first time Collins' approval rating has been negative.

In October 2020 she was at +6, in September she was at +12 and in July after becoming leader she was at +27.

In comparison, Todd Muller received +10 in June and Simon Bridges was on -40 in May.

The groups of people who were move likely than average to approve of how Collins was handling her job were National supporters (at 59%), ACT supporters (at 41%), men aged 55 and over and people with an annual household income of $30,001 to $70,000.

Collins' overall net approval rating among National Party supporters dropped from +70 in December last year to +34.

Those more likely than average to disapprove of Collins' performance were people living in Gisborne/Hawke's Bay, Green and Labour supporters, Māori, and people with an annual household income of $70,001 to more than $150,000.

Judith Collins said her job was one "that requires real resilience and commitment", and on being leader of National, she felt strongly "that this requires the long haul".

"This is never going to be a short term solution.

"When I took over the leadership it wasn't something I expected or sought but I decided then I had to do everything I could. The party I think has been responding very well. We've got some really good work going on."

She said she really enjoys the job. 

Collins said her approval rating would have been impacted by the last approval rating being taken in December, and that National "have had a lot of issues we've had to deal with earlier this year".

Preferred PM:
Jacinda Ardern: 48% (up 5%)
Judith Collins: 9% (up 1%)
David Seymour: 6% (up 2%)
Christopher Luxon: 3% (up 1%)
Chlöe Swarbrick: 2% (up 1%)
Simon Bridges: 2% (up 1%)
Winston Peters: 1%
Sir John Key: 1%

Don’t know: 19% (down 8%)
Refused: 1% (down 4%)

Ardern and Collins have both climbed slightly in support as preferred Prime Minister in the latest poll.

Judith Collins said Jacinda Ardern announcing an announcement on April 6 for the trans-Tasman bubble was “just about as bad as I’ve had seen from any Prime Minister”.

Ardern sat at 48%, moving up 5%, while Collins climbed by 1%, up to 9%.

Collins said she was "absolutely committed to a better country and a better New Zealand and I understand it takes a while for that to happen". 

Ardern told 1 NEWS she was focused on her role as Prime Minister.

"I have been elected to do a job and I will keep doing that job and give it my absolute all. New Zealanders have placed huge confidence in us, and our job is to make sure we do all we can to help New Zealand recover from Covid-19."

David Seymour moved up to 6% as preferred PM, his highest rating, while first term National MP Christopher Luxon came in on 3%.

Last year, the David Seymour-led party gained 10 seats in Parliament — its biggest caucus since 2002.

Auckland Central MP Chlöe Swarbrick made her first appearance on the preferred PM rankings – siting at 2%.

Ms Swarbrick says she has a proven track record of speaking out on issues that matter.

Former National leader Simon Bridges moved up to 2%, after returning to the preferred PM list for the first time at the last March poll after being rolled as leader by Todd Muller.

Parliamentary seats entitlement based on poll results:
Labour Party: 59
National Party: 36
ACT Party: 12
Green Party: 11
Māori Party: 2
The Parliament seat entitlement method assumes Rawiri Waititi holds the seat of Waiariki.

See March's poll here.

Between May 22-26, 2021, 1002 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (501) and online (501). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. For party support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region and ethnic identification. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel.