Those Blues supporters watching in dismay as their side was systematically picked apart by a below-strength Chiefs last night have reason to be hopeful that their season will not necessarily end should they lose to the Crusaders in their playoff qualifier next Saturday.
Whether the Blues, the 2024 champions, deserve to progress to a semifinal after their 59-34 humbling in Hamilton last night is certainly up for discussion – it was their third big defeat in a row to a top New Zealand side – but they may yet be a beneficiary of Super Rugby Pacific’s “lucky loser” finals rule.
They still need luck on their side, but finishing as the fourth highest qualifiers, despite their woeful recent form, has potentially given them a get-out-of-jail-free card should the first round of the playoffs go as the form book suggests.
The qualifiers begin on Friday night when the top-seeded Hurricanes play the sixth-ranked Brumbies in Wellington.
The third-ranked Crusaders host the Blues at Te Kaha stadium on Saturday afternoon before the second-ranked Chiefs host the fifth-ranked Reds at Waikato Stadium.
Should the Hurricanes and Chiefs win against their Australian opponents – and they will both be hot favourites to do so – the Blues will qualify for the final semifinal spot even if they lose to the Crusaders as they will be the highest ranked loser over the weekend.
A slip up by the Hurricanes or Chiefs would knock the Blues out, however.
The Chiefs have been beneficiaries as lucky losers – last year they finished as top qualifiers and were leading the Blues 19-6 in their playoff in Hamilton before losing 20-19.
The second life put them into a home semifinal against the Brumbies, which they comfortably won, before they lost to the Crusaders in the grand final in Christchurch. A change to the lucky loser rule this year dictates they will enter the semifinals as fourth seeds. Last year, the Chiefs dropped only one seed (which allowed them to host the Brumbies).
Last night the Chiefs, without outside back Leroy Carter, first-five Damian McKenzie and prop Ollie Norris, gathered themselves after falling behind 10-0 against a Blues team determined to get the victory which would allow them to host the Crusaders in their qualifier at Eden Park.
Striking back with three tries in 10 minutes, they took the halftime lead and then pulled away with a devastating four-try sequence in 12 second-half minutes.
The Blues, who had conceded big losing margins to the Crusaders and Hurricanes in the lead up to their bye last week, appeared short of quality and ideas despite having more to play for than their opponents, who were already locked in as the second seeds.
After bludgeoning all before them in 2024 thanks to a narrow game plan based on the dominance of their pack, the Blues have not developed and the franchise’s hierarchy may be looking forward to a fresh approach from incoming coach Jason Holland following Vern Cotter’s announcement that he is leaving to coach the Reds.
One of the few highlights in the absence of the injured Beauden Barrett and Patrick Tuipulotu was the debut of New Zealand under-20s hooker Eli Oudenryn, who scored a try and could have had another.
The previous evening the Crusaders had put the pressure on the Blues to win to secure a home qualifier by thrashing a weakened Hurricanes 47-14.
It was a one-sided victory notable for the performances of wing Sevu Reece, who was celebrating his 100th match for the Crusaders and scored two tries (and converted his second from the sideline), loose forward Christian Lio-Willie and backs David Havili and Johnny McNicholl.
Tasman midfielder Cooper Roberts impressed on debut with a series of offloads.
The Crusaders, inconsistent earlier in the season but with recent notable victories over the Chiefs, Blues and Hurricanes, have built quite the momentum.
The Blues, on the other hand, are going backwards. It should be said, too, that their reward for making the semifinals via a lucky loser spot will be an away match against the Hurricanes.
The Hurricanes, hoping to repeat their only Super Rugby championship (2016), appear the most complete team in his year's competition.
Something else for the Blues to think about is the fact that the Crusaders have never lost a home playoff match.
They have yet to play one at their new stadium, but they haven’t lost there yet either.
Super Rugby Pacific playoffs
Friday, 7.05pm: Hurricanes (1) v Brumbies (6) in Wellington
Saturday, 4.35pm: Crusaders (3) v Blues (4) in Christchurch
Saturday, 7.05pm: Chiefs (2) v Reds (5) in Hamilton
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