Sep 22 poll: Labour drops, National flounders as minor parties lift

Source: 1News

A decrease in support for Labour has seen a rise in minor party support, and while Labour could still govern alone, National continues to flounder.

The latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll sees a drop of 5% support for Labour since the last poll in late July – they’re now sitting on 48%.

National dips slightly to 31%.

The results will be put to the party leaders Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins tonight during the First Live Leaders' Debate on TVNZ1 and at 7pm.

ACT has continued to gain support up to 7% - translating to nine seats in Parliament.

The party last had nine MPs after the 1999 and 2002 elections, and leader David Seymour has been the party’s sole MP since 2014.

The Green Party has also clawed itself back from teetering on the threshold, sitting on 6% - which would be enough to see them returned to Parliament.

Other minor parties have also seen a rise, with New Conservative pulling up to 2%, The Opportunities Party (TOP) gaining ground up to 1%, and Advance NZ making an appearance on 1%.

In the Preferred Prime Minister rankings, Ardern remains steady on 54%, a number that hasn’t changed since June. Collins dropped 2%, down to 18%.

Party support
Labour Party - 48% (down 5%)
National Party - 31% (down 1%)
ACT - 7% (up 2%)
Green Party - 6% (up 1%)
New Zealand First - 2%
New Conservative - 2%
The Opportunities Party – 1% (up 1%)
Māori Party - 1%
Advance New Zealand – 1% (up 1%)
Don’t Know/Refused - 14%

Parliamentary seat entitlement based on these poll results
Labour Party 62
National Party 41
ACT Party 9
Green Party 8

Ardern said she was pleased with Labour’s result. “Regardless, we will not be complacent.”

She said they were “working very hard to earn votes and the confidence of the voters, particularly in our ongoing response around Covid because that's where many voters’ minds are presently”.

National leader Judith Collins was preparing for tonight’s Leaders’ Debate and the party did not immediately respond to the poll results.

It is 1 NEWS’ first Colmar Brunton Poll since the second wave of Covid-19 hit Auckland and since the delayed election date of October 17 was announced.

It ran from last Thursday until last night – during that time GDP figures were released confirming New Zealand was in a recession, National promised to temporarily slash income tax, Labour promised to double sick leave and Labour pointed out a $4 billion hole in National’s debt target just hours before the party’s virtual launch.

National leader Judith Collins was preparing for tonight’s Leaders’ Debate – but deputy Gerry Brownlee told 1 NEWS National was not disappointed or deterred by the result.

“The country has been very much focused on the Covid-19 response, we’ve only in the last day or so started to come out of that, and as we do there’ll be a greater focus on what’s the economy going to look like for the next three years,” he said.

“Every poll will have a snap shot of what people are seeing at that time, but her reception out there with the public is pretty good and we’re happy with that.”

ACT’s David Seymour said his party’s results were “very encouraging and encourages ACT to campaign even harder”.

The Green Party’s James Shaw said he was looking forward to a Labour-Green Government, should the poll results be similar to the election result.

Winston Peters again described the poll as “rubbish” – adding: “If you want to go on making yourself look stupid, that’s your problem.”

Preferred Prime Minister
Jacinda Ardern remains steady on 54%, a number that hasn’t changed since June.
Judith Collins dropped 2%, down to 18%. She had previously been at 20% in her first 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll as National Party leader in July.
David Seymour is on 2%, alongside NZ First leader Winston Peters.
Fourteen per cent of those polled did not know who their preferred PM was – the lowest result in recent polls.

Jacinda Ardern: 54% (steady)
Judith Collins: 18% (down 2%)
Winston Peters: 2% (up 1%)
David Seymour: 2% (up 1%)

See May’s poll here
See June’s poll here
See July’s poll here

Between September 17 and 21, 2020, 1008 eligible voters were polled by landline (405) and mobile phone (603). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For Party Support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers.
The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and mobile or landline access.