Opportunity is going into the election polling around 5%, and getting to that number could dramatically shape how Aotearoa's next government looks. Here's why the magical five matters and what happens if the party doesn't make it.
Three polls released this week put the party around the magical 5% line.
The most recent one, released by Freshwater this morning, had Opportunity on 5.1% - just barely above the threshold. Though other polls, including the 1News Verian, show Qiulae Wong's party with more breathing room at around 6%. A Curia poll showed it at about 6% too.
The reason why this matters is that under the proportional MMP voting system, a party needs at least 5% of the party vote - or an electorate seat - to enter Parliament.
If Opportunity gets in, it’s likely to win a handful of seats and - in a close result that's being predicted this election - that could give it the pivotal "kingmaker" role in choosing which side - either the Labour-led or National-led blocs - can form a government.
According to the latest 1News Verian poll, just 29% said it had made a difference. (Source: 1News)
Christopher Luxon has ruled out working with Wong after the election - a promise that Opportunity and others doubted publicly. NZ First has also said it ruled Wong out.
Wong said earlier this week, reacting to the most recent 1News Verian poll which had her party on 6%, that Opportunity would speak first to the party with the most seats.
“That might take waiting for the special votes to come in if it is very close. So, we’re going to have to wait and see how the results turn out on Saturday night,” she said.
Her party is also making a play for electorate seats, including most prominently Wong's run in Auckland's Mt Albert - but political commentators have been sceptical of its chances.
If Opportunity falls short of 5% and wins no electorate, then none of its votes will count towards seats, and they're deemed effectively wasted votes by commentators.
With four days to go until polling day, no party has a clear lead. (Source: 1News)
Votes of sub-5% parties without electorates are set aside so the parties that do qualify to get into Parliament each end up with a slightly bigger share of the House.
If Opportunity misses out, it is likely to make things harder for Labour than for National, as the latter already has two durable and sizeable partners in ACT and NZ First.
Opportunity is one of the few extra parties Labour could turn to as NZ First and ACT have long said neither wanted to work with Labour. That leaves leader Chris Hipkins with only the Greens and Te Pāti Māori - the latter of which has explicitly said it is not campaigning for party votes.
Te Pāti Māori could be a significant variable as it's asking supporters to give their party votes to Labour or the Greens. Every Māori electorate it wins beyond its party-vote share adds an extra seat to the House, which would help the left bloc close the gap.
But without Wong and her party, Labour and its allies would need to win enough seats on their own, and recent polls suggest that may be difficult.
But leader Chris Hipkins believes they're gaining traction at just the right time. (Source: 1News)
That's also not speaking to the notion that Opportunity also appears to draw more of its support from the left. 1News Verian polling from September and October suggested about half of Qiulae Wong's supporters voted Labour or Green at the last election.
That compared with about a quarter who backed National, ACT or NZ First.
Opportunity very close to or around the 5% threshold in the election night results - known as the preliminaries - will almost certainly mean fulsome coalition negotiations would need to wait until the final results are officially settled, which will take weeks.
Final official results are declared on November 27.
Meanwhile a clear miss for Opportunity would also raise questions about the polls, which for most of the past month have had the party above the threshold.
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