Labour has tumbled to its lowest vote share since December 2024 and Opportunity has passed the 5% threshold for the first time in a mainstream poll, according to this month's Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll.
Opportunity rose 2.8 points to 6.1%, enough to enter Parliament and reshape the numbers on both sides of the House.
Labour fell 3.7 points to 27.8%, and would shed five seats to sit on 36, while National lifted 0.5 points to 31.0% and gained a seat to reach 40.
The three governing parties, National, ACT and New Zealand First, dropped one seat between them to 61 in the poll's projection. The bloc of Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and TOP gained one to 59.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon would still have the numbers to form a government, though the margin has slimmed.
Inside the Government bloc, New Zealand First took the biggest hit, down 1.7 points to 9.1% and losing two seats to sit on 12. ACT rose 0.4 points to 7.3% and held nine.
The Greens eased 0.3 points to 10.1% and stayed on 13. Te Pāti Māori dropped 1.9 points to 1.5%, its worst result since March 2023, which would cut the party to two seats.
Luxon leads the preferred prime minister question on 23.2%, up 4.1 points, ahead of Labour leader Chris Hipkins on 19.8%, up 0.6 points. Winston Peters is on 10.5%, down 1.3 points, Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick is on 4.8% and ACT leader David Seymour is on 3.8%, down 1.3 points.
This poll assumes there would be no overhang seats for National or Te Pāti Māori.
The August results are measured against the July 2026 Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll.
The poll took place between Saturday and Tuesday.
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