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Analysis: Plenty at stake as Pacific foreign ministers meet

Foreign Minister Winston Peters

Analysis: Foreign Minister Winston Peters leaves for Fiji today to meet with foreign ministers from around the Pacific. Pacific Correspondent Barbara Dreaver looks at what's on the table.

One could be forgiven in thinking the Pacific Islands Forum foreign ministers meeting is one big snooze fest. There's certainly been a precedent for it to be.

But this year's annual session, which does the groundwork for the region's leaders forum later in the month, has a number of critical issues up for discussion.

The increasing geopolitical competitive landscape is evolving into a major problem.

While for years the international community - with China until recently in the lead - has been jockeying for influence, the tension has now been amped up. China carried out live fire exercises between New Zealand and Australia last year, and also recently fired a ballistic missile with a dummy warhead into the Pacific Ocean.

As the Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale said at the time: "This is not something a friend does... this is not good in our region."

Behind the scenes Pacific leaders are furious at China's action - which happened on the same day Fiji signed a defence deal with Australia - but some have been reluctant to speak out.

Then there was the full 180 squealing of hastily applied brakes when PNG's Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko, who had described the Chinese missile as "stupidity", less than a week later closed down Taiwan's representative office, winning applause from Beijing amid promises of elevating of ties.

While Australia puts the most aid into the region, China's 'no questions asked' policy on how its grant funding is spent is attractive to cash-strapped Pacific nations and they aren't about to bite the hand that feeds them.

Nonetheless, the region is not impressed at China's missile action and is also resentful that the Pacific is being used as a stage for escalating militarisation by global power rivalry.

Pacific leaders have found themselves as reluctant bystanders at a show they have little choice but to attend.

Chances of a joint statement

So far there has been no joint statement in protest at the missile firing. If the foreign leaders by some miracle are able to agree on one, it will likely be watered down.

Despite this backdrop, it is naive to think geopolitics is at the top of Pacific leaders agenda. It's not.

The cost of living is something that has hit the Pacific and its people hard and - to take a cynical viewpoint - leaders know this is more likely to get them voted out of power by their own voters than a Chinese missile.

China's firing of a missile in the Pacific was widely condemned.

As the global fuel crisis hit the Pacific, which is at the bottom of the supply chain, Pacific Islands Forum leaders officially invoked the Biketawa Declaration in May so they could coordinate a regional response.

The declaration provides a framework in times of crisis or an event that threatens the security of the region.

Ongoing fuel supply and high costs continue to be a serious concern. The impact of climate change also remains a priority for Pacific leaders.

And some of the region faces a food security crisis as the onset of El Nino, with the cyclical weather event expected to generate drought in the western Pacific in places like Papua New Guinea.

Disaster management

Devastating weather conditions are being predicted, so disaster risk management is key.

Papua New Guinea has had multiple tragic boat incidents in the last month due to strong winds, high swells and low visibility. In one disaster two boats with 27 people on board, including 11 children, capsized in rough seas and only the two skippers survived.

At the heart of it is how to make the valuable Pacific Islands Forum fit for purpose instead of the clunky, often heavily bureaucratic and sometimes completely inadequate grouping it is.

Work has been ongoing on what is called the "architecture" of the forum but it's harder than it sounds.

Last year, reportedly folding to pressure from China, the 2025 Pacific Islands Forum host Solomon Islands initially banned Taiwan, a development partner, from attending.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon at the 2025 Pacific Islands Forum.

After protests from other forum countries, the Solomons then blocked all development and dialogue partners from going, including China.

It is outrageous that a host country holds that much power - it is not one country's organisation, the Pacific Islands Forum has 18 member countries.

And that's the issue - those 18 countries have different needs, economic outlooks and varying levels of isolation. It's pretty obvious that the region is stronger together. Working on common ground, unity, is key in these uncertain and volatile times.

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