Analysis: The time of publicly tiptoeing around China's geopolitical push in the Pacific appears to be over, writes 1News Pacific Correspondent Barbara Dreaver.
Pacific leaders are fond of chanting "Friends to all, enemies to none" when confronted with the growing competitive pressure between superpowers in the region — not least because China is generous with much-needed aid and cash for its Pacific friends.
But the fact Beijing has fired a long-range missile with a dummy nuclear warhead into the Pacific from a submarine, shortly after Australia and Fiji signed a comprehensive and elevated security pact on mutual defence, is unlikely to be welcomed.
First off, the word "nuclear" remains triggering for the Pacific, which was used as a testing ground for many years — primarily by the US, France and UK — and this dummy warhead missile landed in the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone.
New Zealand was warned that China planned to fire a missile into the South Pacific Ocean only hours before the launch, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters said. (Source: 1News)
Pacific leaders are also unlikely to see it as coincidence that the Australia-Fiji deal and the missile firing into the region happened within hours of each other, and they won't appreciate their front yards being targeted.
The Pacific Islands Forum's Pacific Security Outlook Report 2026, which came out several months ago, couldn't have been more accurate when it reported: "In the Pacific, the positioning of military and strategic assets into the region is likely to increase over the next 12 to 24 months. This was demonstrated in the recent past by China increasing visibility around its military capability through the conduct of an intercontinental ballistic missile test and freedom of navigation patrols, including circumnavigating Australia."
The battle for influence has been revving up.
In 2022, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi raced around the region on an ambitious eight-country, ten-day tour building relationships, hopeful after signing a secret bilateral security agreement with the Solomon Islands. But a lot has changed since 2022.
It is not the first time China has fired missiles into the Pacific. In 2024, a ballistic missile flew past parts of Kiribati, evoking a rare but furious response from President Taneti Maamau, who said Kiribati did not welcome the test and had not been warned. It was a rare rebuke because Kiribati has had a close relationship with China, including hosting Chinese police within its own ranks.
Then early last year, Chinese warships carried out live firing exercises between Australia and New Zealand. But Monday's test was far more blatant in its timing.
As well as signing up Fiji to a defence alliance, Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is also heading to the Solomon Islands to continue negotiating a treaty there before hosting leaders from Tonga, Samoa and Papua New Guinea.
Australia has already signed the Pukpuk Treaty with Papua New Guinea, giving it access to PNG's military facilities and troops.
And then there's its Nakamal Agreement, signed with Vanuatu just over a week ago, in which the island nation agrees not to permit its territory to be used for any foreign military base or infrastructure.
Earlier this year, New Zealand signed a defence and security declaration with the Cook Islands, tidying up a two-year political relationship breakdown with its realm country after Prime Minister Mark Brown signed a number of secret agreements with Beijing without consulting New Zealand.
It appears, on the surface of it at least, that China is being edged out by Australia — edged out of a region it has spent a lot of time fostering relationships and winning influence. Hence the long-range missile test. The timing alone sends a message.
The Pacific Islands Forum leaders will be meeting in Palau next month. It promises to be an interesting meeting.
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