Pasifika Update: The brutal side of Pacific politics

Analysis: As New Zealand is now in the midst of election campaign – a couple of our Pacific neighbours are also readying for the polls.

Campaigning for next month's Cook Islands general election – scheduled for August 12 – is ramping up.

The election date, announced just a week ago, was a political master stroke by Prime Minister Mark Brown – giving his opponents a little over six weeks notice. Outcry from the Opposition parties came thick and fast about the "tight timeframe" calling it "unfair".

But that's politics and, when you are in the driver's seat, you get to steer.

There's no doubt the timing works for Brown and his Cook Islands Party.

Earlier this year the fractured relationship with realm country New Zealand was healed after Brown agreed to sign a Declaration on Defence and Security essentially ensuring New Zealand gets consulted in a "timely and transparent" way and can veto anything it feels is a threat to its security or that of the realm.

This gave New Zealand the reassurance that was needed to mend a two year serious political standoff after the Cook Islands signed a number of controversial agreements with China around the maritime and oceans sector – including on transport and infrastructure. The details weren't shared with New Zealand beforehand which is constitutionally required.

Then there was Brown's idea of Cook Islanders having their own passport as well as a New Zealand one.

This resulted in Foreign Minister Winston Peters declaring Cook Islanders could choose one or the other they couldn't have both – it didn't work under the New Zealand constitutional relationship... but, he added, if the Cook Islands were to become independent then it could do what it liked. Most Cook Islanders value their New Zealand passports and were furious at the thought they might lose it.

However, Brown withdrew the idea and signed the Defence and Security Declaration – meaning the nearly $30 million in budgetary support that New Zealand had suspended – valuable cash used to support education, health and tourism projects – was reinstated. The impact of this had begun to be felt by the public so, from a political standpoint, it had to happen. That whole unpleasant and very public saga has now been tidied up.

Like most elections across the pacific they become personal quickly. There's family and village allegiances and social media is brutal – not surprising really for small communities where everyone knows everyone else. In the leadup to the last election, a Cook Islands News survey put Brown as the most popular choice for Prime Minister by far at 44% with the nearest opponent at 16%.

And that was even with a scandal around the Deputy Prime Minister Robert Tepaitau who had been suspended over charges of fraud and corruption. Brown reinstated him so he could stand in the 2022 election where he was re-elected. He was suspended again during his trial but then Brown reinstated him as deputy Prime Minister yet again until the guilty judgement – and a jail sentence. There was public outrage about this but on the flip-side Brown, a strong Finance Minister, had navigated the country through the Covid years despite being so dependent on tourism.

This election, at least for now, looks to be more peaceful with the most surprising (although not surprising to the residents on an island that has no secrets) news that Cook Islands Party MP and cabinet minister George Maggie Angene is ditching his party and standing as an Independent in Manihiki against the former Prime Minister's wife Akaiti Puna who blitzed her opponents at the last election.

The Cook Islands Party won the most seats –12 out of 24 – at the last election but failed to get an outright majority . The three independents found themselves with some power so it will be interesting to see how it shakes out this year. The opposition Democratic Party will be looking to build on its disastrous five seats and the relatively new Cook Islands United Party on its three.

The Cook Islands isn't the only upcoming election in the region. Fiji also has one although the date still has to be announced and if you want drama there is bound to be that here.

Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka's People's Alliance Party is in coalition with the Social Democratic Liberal Party (Sodelpa) and the National Federation Party (NFP). He also has the support of a number of MPs from the former ruling FijiFirst Party taking numbers he can count on to around 40 out of 55 seats.

But Rabuka, who has been around for years, will also know he won't be able to count on anything in the next election. Fiji politics is truly brutal.

A case in point was the alleged sex scandal supposedly involving drugs between two ministers and leaked intimate pictures on social media – both ministers denied they had had an affair.

One of them was Sodelpa leader Aseri Radrodro – who was later dumped from cabinet for disobedience and insubordination with regards to appointments made to the Fiji national University Council.

The other was then Minister of Women, Children and Social Protection Lynda Tabuya – who was later sacked after a private video of her dancing naked was leaked online without her consent. Both ministers were reinstated to cabinet positions but Tubuya has faced relentless cyber bullying and harassment.

Meanwhile, two former co-Deputy Prime ministers have resigned – Biman Prasad after being charged with corruption and Manoa Kamikamica charged with perjury and providing false information to a public servant.

Given its military coup culture over the decades, commander Major General Ro Jone Kalouniwai has been a steady pair of hands and recently told media the military will not interfere in the elections and will remain focused on its constitutional role. This is reassuring – although, he has often stated this since he got the top job. But it's reassuring now because he has publicly criticised the government's recent budget cuts to the military – around F$14.8 million or 9% – and run full page advertisements in the newspapers.

In the past, when the military is not happy in Fiji, bad things happen. But things have evolved. The Commander has just been offered, and accepted, another five years in the top role clearly trusted by the government.

Fiji faces a serious drug crisis, the victim of international syndicates which are storing and transhipping meth and cocaine to New Zealand and Australia. It has reached such crisis levels that the military has joined police in fighting it.

It is unfortunate that 13 officers are being investigated following the death of a drug convict while in custody at the barracks. He was being questioned regarding an attempted break-in at a military armoury and the police have upgraded their investigation to a murder. But the military is cooperating with police – a far cry from the not-so-distant past.

At the end of the day, the voters who have the most to gain – or lose – will elect a government they believe will best serve the people.

There will be drama, there will be scandals, there will be wrangling and anger. But there is also hope – something both the Cook Islands and Fiji deserve.