Explainer: For a party that's never made it into Parliament, there's been a lot of talk about Opportunity recently. RNZ's Nik Dirga takes a look at their policy.
The Opportunity Party hit a high of 4.6% in the latest 1News Verian poll last week, putting it within striking distance of the 5% needed to make it into the House.
The party was originally founded by economist Gareth Morgan in 2016, and has since seen revolving leaders and hovered around only 2% of the vote in the last few elections.
Businesswoman Qiulae Wong took over as the party's fifth leader in November, rebranding it from The Opportunities Party (or TOP) to just the Opportunity Party.
"For 20 years, the left and right have played political musical chairs while New Zealand has declined," Wong has written.
Minor party race heats up with Opportunity rising to a record rating with voters. (Source: 1News)
The party's website lays out where Opportunity sees itself, saying they want to "stop the division, build the next economy and restore nature".
But what does that mean when it comes to cold, hard policy?
Here's a rundown of what they've announced so far.
Are they left or right ... or neither?
Wong said she uses left and right labels "reluctantly", and says Opportunity needs to be a "centrist party, to work across the political spectrum to solve some of these issues". She has pushed Opportunity as a chance to replace NZ First as the "kingmaker" in MMP politics.
"I believe they stand for division and they use division to get votes, whereas we want to actually find common ground and bring people together."
NZ First leader Winston Peters has in turn called Opportunity "a party of consultants".
"I think it's a real shame we've got this left bloc and this right bloc, and that's not the point of MMP," Wong has told RNZ.
A new 1News Verian poll put the party on the cusp of making it into Parliament for the first time. (Source: 1News)
"We might as well have first past the post if we're just going to have a left and a right."
The big question is whether they could collaborate with existing parties.
Wong has said the party would not have a preference between working with Labour or National in government and would first approach the party with the biggest share of the vote.
"The more useful question might be whether TOP's suite of policies can be more easily accommodated by a Labour-led or National-led governing arrangement," University of Otago law professor Andrew Geddis said.
"While there are some policies that could align with National and its likely partners (the TOP policy on superannuation looks like National's recently announced policy), a lot more of it looks to be things that Labour could live with.
"Once TOP start polling close to the magic 5% mark, voters who previously might have ignored them as a potential wasted vote will have permission to consider them seriously."
Qiulae Wong spoke to Q+A's Jack Tame about the Opportunity party. (Source: Q and A)
OK, so what are the party's policies?
The party has 14 policy sections so far on their website, with four of them so far with their final policies – "tax reset", "abundant energy", "healthy oceans" and "citizens' voice".
Opportunity Party deputy leader Daniel Eb said the party will be putting out more details as the election nears.
"We'll be releasing the other policies regularly going forward," he said, noting the website policy sections give an idea of each policy's general directions.
"Outside of policy, we will be announcing the list rankings in July and you can expect other announcements in the months leading up to the election."
Even if the party makes it into Parliament, of course, none of their policies is guaranteed to.
Wong said: "We won't be compromising on our values, and we'll walk away if we have to, but we will be pushing really hard to advocate for the things that voters are supporting us for."
"We're like a start-up business, you can't do everything," she told RNZ's The Detail.
The tax reset – and universal income
The party's most sweeping policies are around taxation, including a proposal which would introduce a universal basic income for everyone, funded by a new land tax.
"Our tax policy has been developed over a decade by multiple different economists," Wong told The Detail.
It's got three primary reforms:
1. Citizen's Income: The party promotes a Citizen's Income or universal basic income of up to $370 a week or $19,400 a year for every citizen and resident aged over 18, which it calls "a guaranteed payment that provides the basics".
That idea led Prime Minister Christopher Luxon to weigh in, when asked about recent polls results for the Opportunity Party: "They want to make every New Zealander a beneficiary," he responded.
The party says the Citizen's Income would replace "many main benefits" including Jobseeker, Student Allowance, Sole Parent Support and Supported Living allowance, but the party would also overhaul the benefits system with several universal supplementary supports such as Child Support Incomes, disability allowance and housing support income payments.
2. Land Value Tax: The party calls for a 1.75% annual tax on the value of urban land and 0.5% on rural land – aimed to "redirect money from speculation". It says the policy "fixes the broken settings that have driven house prices to unconscionable levels".
That Land Value Tax alone would pay for the Citizen's Income, with another $4 billion in revenue left over, the party claims in its policy overview.
3. Compulsory KiwiSaver: Branded as "KiwiSaver 2.0", and according to the party, separate from the existing voluntary KiwiSaver scheme, it would be compulsory for all New Zealanders. Employee and employer contributions would gradually rise to 6% over time - a total 12% contribution.
The party would also introduce three simplified income tax brackets ranging from 28% to 39%.
Environmental policies
The party has also spruiked several environmental or sustainability policies.
Their Healthy Oceans platform would transform fisheries management, including moving away from single-species quotas to ecosystem-based approaches, phasing out bottom trawling and expanding marine protection areas.
The Abundant Energy plan would boost renewable energy by securing cross-party agreement to add 30GW to the grid by 2050, and ringfencing government profits from power generation for investment in renewables. It would also merge energy regulatory agencies and consolidate the 29 energy distributors into no more than eight.
Wong told The Detail she feels there is uncertainty in the direction of New Zealand's energy future that needs to be sorted out.
"Are we investing in a low-emissions future that's fully renewable, or do we not care, are we just going to take fossil fuels from the rest of the world ... that uncertainty is really dangerous and it's challenging for our economy."
Business growth
In their "Productivity Unleashed" section, they cite NZ business success stories like Xero and Rocket Lab and say "it's time to get our innovation foundations right", and dismiss strategies like direct sector subsidies, extractive industries and low-wage migration boosts. As part of their general tax strategy, they call for a shift to business investment instead of property.
The party wants to raise spending on research and development to at least 2% of GDP, build a "gold-standard regulatory environment" for AI, and rein in monopolies in sectors including banks, supermarkets and building materials.
They also promote student loan interest forgiveness and call to open and regulate sectors like cannabis and gene technology.
Citizen participation
As a way to address failing political participation, Opportunity would introduce citizen assemblies to consider and advise on major issues, with the same number of participants as MPs. The policy notes how similar assemblies broke a gridlock on marriage equality and abortion in Ireland.
It would also appoint an independent Parliamentary Commissioner to oversee the assembly processes.
Other policies
The party's website includes several other briefings on many topics including education, infrastructure, climate action, affordable housing and healthcare.
Among the highlights of these are:
On Te Titiri, their website says "Opportunity takes the responsibility of the Crown as a Treaty partner seriously".
The party would repeal the Marine and Coastal Area (Takutai Moana) Amendment Bill, and include Aotearoa history, including the Treaty of Waitangi, at all levels, and support growth in te reo teachers and education.
In political reform, the party calls for limiting donations, increasing donation transparency and regulating professional lobbyists.
An independent anti-corruption commission would have "teeth to enforce the rules".
With crime, Opportunity wants to "invest in solutions that are proven to actually reduce crime rates, not just punish people".
They would seek to reduce the costs of the prison system with a focus on the harm caused by family violence, expanding drug and mental health court pilot programmes, among others.
It would move to decriminalise drug possession, but not supply offences such as dealing, manufacturing and trafficking.
On health, the party calls for more long-term planning and a focus on prevention. It also calls for increasing pay and improving conditions for health care workers and reinstating the Smokefree 2025 legislation.
Does polling really indicate Opportunity have an... opportunity?
While there has been a flurry of media coverage of Opportunity in the past few weeks, there have historically been many small parties that have had a surge only to fall short at the ballot box.
For instance, back in 2014, the Conservative Party led by Colin Craig hit the same 4.6% mark in a 3 News-Reid Research poll.
But in the general election, they only made it to 3.97% of the vote.
"The real question is whether there is one-in-20 voters who would like to see something different in Parliament," Geddis said.
"Given the general disenchantment with the status quo (which I think extends even to parties that claim to want to disrupt it, such as ACT, Te Pāti Māori, and the Greens), this could be the election where there is a breakthrough for a party from outside the current parliamentary cartel."
Realistically, there's very little chance Opportunity could end up leading a government, but laying out their policies lets them plant their flag on certain issues.
"I think TOP has been strategically clever with its 'we will negotiate with the largest party after the election' approach," Geddis said. "On present polling, this will be Labour."
"The danger for TOP is that they surge too soon," he added.
"Four months is a long time to sustain excited interest in a new and different political option, while the generally positive coverage that they have received will inevitably turn into harder questioning about the detail of their positions and plans."
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