Analysis: Scotty Stevenson and Patrick McKendry discuss Super Rugby's upcoming semifinals – including what Beauden Barrett's return means for the Blues.
PM: Scotty, before we look ahead to the weekend’s Super Rugby Pacific semifinals, let’s start with the three recent qualifiers which featured wide winning margins for the Hurricanes, Chiefs and Crusaders but also high quality in all three matches.
I suspect you, like many others, were particularly impressed with the latest Hurricanes’ performance.
What do you make of them and what else caught your eye?
SS: The Hurricanes are a joy to watch, and deserve the heavy favourite tag they've had pinned on them for the home semifinal against the Blues. They are, in many ways, the most complete team in the competition, blending athletic tight forwards with a balanced and dynamic loose forward platoon; the best halves combo in the country with a well-organised midfield and exceptional outside backs.
They have the personnel but, more importantly, they have a blueprint for a game plan that consistently and effectively creates space in which to attack. They also know when and where to play.
One of the most amazing statistics from last week's qualifying final blitz of the Brumbies was that 67% of the in-game action was spent inside the Brumbies half. There is no team in the competition that can boss a game from that far downfield. The Hurricanes know this. The week before they were on the other side of a similar stat when the Crusaders barbecued them under the roof. And it was even worse for the Blues last week.
Speaking of the Crusaders, quite aside from their fans single-handedly boosting Super Rugby's attendance numbers thanks to the opening of Te Kaha, this team looks a lot more composed with the bit between the teeth and knock-out rugby in play.
They love this stuff and have showcased champion pedigree on their dry track. They will have to show that same level of control at FMG where the Chiefs will look to disrupt their flow with their usual abrasive and aggressive play.
Which leads me to ask this, Pat: How do you rate the Chiefs after their defeat of a spirited Reds side, and do you think they have any edge over the Crusaders this weekend?
PM: They have one of the deepest squads in the competition and, like the Hurricanes, utter certainty as to their strengths and the way they want to play.
They were deserved winners over the Reds last weekend but the Queenslanders had several small wins, not least at the breakdown, where the impressive Fraser McReight and Harry Wilson led the way.
The Crusaders will have seen that and will hope the in-form Leicester Fainga’anuku and Christian Lio-Willie can do something similar on Friday.
More than anything, though, the importance of the mental side of the game will be paramount this weekend and both the Hurricanes and Chiefs have metaphorical scars in this area – as Canes halfback Cam Roigard admitted this week.
The Hurricanes are perennial finals guests but don’t often make the big dance and they have only one championship win.
Similarly, the Chiefs won back-to-back titles in 2012 and 2013 but have not won a championship since and have lost the last three grand finals.
I expect the Hurricanes to huff and puff and then blow the Blues away but the Chiefs v Crusaders semifinal is almost too close to call. The Crusaders have looked very good over the last four weeks but they have been at home the entire time; although they did beat the Chiefs in Hamilton earlier in the season.
Damian McKenzie may give the Chiefs an edge on attack, but Crusaders skipper and midfielder David Havili is on such a tear again this season I can see him getting the visitors home almost by willpower alone.
Do you feel the Chiefs’ past failures weigh heavily or am I reading too much into them?
SS: Havili has been a gun all year and has been more clutch than ever in the last few weeks. What a juicy battle it will be between Quinn Tupaea and him. A lot of pundits have written Havili off, in terms of international aspirations, but I don't count myself among their number. He is a natural leader and has grown stronger with added responsibility.
The mental gymnastics required to resolve recent history with current form require an adroit flexibility which may be beyond my cerebral capacity. However, let me have a crack.
Yes, the Chiefs have lost three grand finals on the bounce and have lost twice to the Crusaders this year (albeit with a down-powered squad in the last fixture), but they don't strike me as a team that scars easily. If anything, to me they appear to be a better team when they shake the tension and play with natural instinct, rather than boxing themselves in with a rigid game plan. The antipodean proposition applies to the Crusaders: they thrive within some well-honed parameters.
I guess the biggest question is this: Can the Blues dig their way out of a hole of their own creation?
They have to take some encouragement from a couple of late tries against the Crusaders last week (when they seemed to throw caution to the wind, finally), but they need a game driver to take this one by the scruff of the neck. I know a guy... I think you know of whom I speak.
PM: Yes, the Blues have made a big thing about their defence not being up to scratch in the wake of their recent beating in Christchurch but their attack hasn’t fired either and they will be grateful for Beauden Barrett’s return.
No matter what you think of Barrett’s form before his quadriceps injury, the Blues are better with him in the starting line-up. While starting at No.15, his match-up against young gun Ruben Love will be fascinating and both have points to prove ahead of the first All Blacks squad naming of the year which is just around the corner.
The Blues have (rightly) been criticised for playing a boring and ultimately ineffective brand of rugby this season. Now, surely, is the time to throw caution to the wind and get back to the Blues of old. Having said that, watching them fumble their way to a defeat against the Crusaders last month when they had a two-man advantage for the last 10 minutes does not fill me with hope.
Can they do it? And what’s your prediction for the semifinal in Hamilton?
SS: Hard to write off one horse in a two-horse race, but the Blues have just looked so stilted and uncertain this year that I cannot see them upsetting the momentum of the Hurricanes.
They would need to produce a performance vastly at odds with what they have delivered over the last month. They have looked lively out of the gate but have been done by the length of the straight too often for me to think there is some miracle on the near horizon.
As for the match in the Tron, I can see this coming down to the crunch. It would not surprise to have a late penalty as the deciding factor or, better still, one late magic moment.
I'm not one for omens but, last year, the Chiefs beat the Crusaders twice in the regular season only to fall at the final hurdle. This year, the roles are reversed. Read into that what you will, all while considering the Crusaders have won the last five finals matches between these two sides since going down 19-20 in the 2013 semifinal.
There will be no lack of motivation here, but I do think the Chiefs will ride their hometown luck and triumph. I don't know if I have any genuine empirical evidence to base this on, so I'll call it a hunch.
I'm thinking you might be leaning toward the defending champions here. Would that be fair?
PM: Agree with you regarding Hurricanes v Blues. Chiefs v Crusaders is a coin toss for me. I’ll go Crusaders to continue the curse.
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