A El Niño climate pattern is now 95% likely to develop over the next three months, with meteorologists warning it could bring "significant impacts" and drier-than-usual conditions to parts of New Zealand later this winter.
Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ) said the tropical Pacific was rapidly transitioning towards El Niño, with the event expected to strengthen through winter and peak during the summer months.
“There is a 95% chance for El Niño conditions to emerge over the June to August period,” the agency said in its latest Seasonal Climate Outlook.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that occurs when sea surface temperatures become warmer than normal in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
The warming changes wind patterns and shifts where rain clouds and storms tend to form.
Scientists have warned the return of El Niño could push global temperatures to record highs in 2027.
For New Zealand, that was expected to bring more frequent west and southwesterly winds during winter, along with generally drier conditions in many northern and eastern regions.
Rainfall was likely to be below normal across much of the North Island, as well as the east of the South Island, while remaining normal across the upper South Island and west of the North Island.
ESNZ said severe weather events bringing heavy rain from the north — which have affected many parts of the country over the past year — were expected to become less frequent in the coming months.
The drier outlook could also create challenges for water-reliant sectors, with below-normal rainfall expected to reduce groundwater recharge in some regions.
1News weather presenter Dan Corbett said while El Niño was expected to influence the weather later in winter, New Zealanders should still expect a mix of systems in the meantime.
"The next few months could be quite a ride for the weather," he said.
A warmer than usual start to winter
The developing El Niño had contributed to an usually warm start to the colder months so far, with many regions recording higher-than-normal temperatures for this time of year.
MetService said Wellington had already beaten its maximum June temperature on record, recording 19°C during the first two days of June.
Earlier this week, MetService meteorologist Gerard Bellam said Christchurch, Ashburton, Timaru, Whanganui and Palmerston North were all tracking towards their driest May on record.
"It's very warm. A lot warmer than usual," he said.
A trough embedded in a humid northerly flow was currently bringing heavy rain, strong winds and flooding risks around parts of the country.
That system was expected to bring noticeably warmer nights along with the heavy rain, MetService meteorologist Ngaire Wotherspoon said last week.
"As we hit meteorological winter on June 1, this system is going to bring some quite warm and humid conditions," she said.
"We're going to be looking at some pretty sticky nights ahead."
The morning's headlines in 90 seconds, including weather watches in force, and the GOAT makes a comeback. (Source: 1News)
SHARE ME