Analysis: The Highlanders coach has been groomed to take over the top job since last year, so missing out now would qualify as a huge shock, writes Patrick McKendry.
It is unlikely that Scott Robertson losing his job halfway through his tenure will be surpassed as the biggest New Zealand rugby news story of the year.
But should Jamie Joseph fail in his bid to replace him as All Blacks head coach it would probably qualify as a close second – given the Highlanders head coach has been groomed by New Zealand Rugby as Robertson’s successor since last year.
Here is an excerpt from NZ Rugby’s statement on Joseph, the former All Blacks loose forward and Japan head coach, from September announcing the 56-year-old as the head coach of the All Blacks XV: “Jamie has coached and played at every level of the game and has a deep understanding, both as a player and coach, of what it takes to prepare players for international rugby and to win on the global stage.
"He’s a proven leader who knows how to get the best out of his players and build a strong team identity and culture.”
The person quoted in that statement was Chris Lendrum, NZ Rugby’s head of professional rugby and performance.
After an introduction like that, it’s difficult to know what else Joseph, who went on to lead his team to victories against the Barbarians, England A and Georgia in matches held in London, Bath and Beziers (France) respectively, would need to do to qualify to take over at the All Blacks proper.
And, given the parameters set by NZ Rugby: Robertson’s replacement must be a New Zealander with international experience (is this last point an admission they got it wrong with Robertson, who coached only in New Zealand?), the only potential wrinkle in Joseph’s succession plan is Dave Rennie, the man who won two championships at the Chiefs.
Rennie, the former Wallabies head coach who is now coaching at Kobe in Japan, has similar credentials to Joseph – with one significant disadvantage being the tyranny of distance and the fact that his rival is already back and firmly ensconced in the New Zealand system.
Experienced observers suggest Rennie, dismissed from the Wallabies eight months before the 2023 World Cup in favour of Australian Eddie Jones, would make an ideal director of rugby at the All Blacks above Joseph, but the pair may not want to work together, with Rennie also likely to be keen to keep his proverbial powder dry as a potential successor to Joseph, assuming the southerner fails to win the job this time.
Richie McCaw in the frame?
Not surprisingly, Joseph has already been talking to potential assistants, including Tony Brown, with whom he has coached at Japan and the Highlanders but currently contracted to South Africa, and, according to sources in the south, former All Blacks captain Richie McCaw.
The trio have been spotted meeting in Wanaka recently – McCaw now lives in the area – and there is a school of thought that suggests if Joseph could convince the two-time World Cup winner and genuine legend of the game to sign up to any formal role (even as a regular advisor) it would add a huge amount of lustre to an already compelling bid.
McCaw spent a week with the All Blacks last year – before the disastrous performance against the Springboks in Wellington – and was involved as an occasional advisor during Ian Foster’s reign as head coach.
Sir Wayne Smith’s recent departure as an All Blacks advisor – probably not such a surprise given he now spends most of his time on the Australia’s Gold Coast – may help open the way for a role for McCaw.
Equally predictable are the rumours of player discontent with the previous coaching regime, especially with regards to communication and culture; two areas of supposed strength for Robertson, who won seven titles in a row at the Crusaders.
It has been said there was confusion among Robertson and his assistants about how much they should change the All Blacks' internal "foundational pillars" messaging and that they perhaps went too far last year – to the dismay of some former players.
If and when Joseph, who missed out to Robertson last time around, gets the nod there would be few better than McCaw to help resurrect those.
A recent NZ Rugby statement said the final decision on the new head coach will be made by the NZ Rugby board.
However, with board chairman and former All Blacks captain David Kirk on the interview panel (along with board member and former All Black Keven Mealamu, high performance expert Don Tricker, interim chief executive Steve Lancaster and a recently retired All Black yet to be confirmed), it would be more accurate to say that the board's confirmation will be a rubber-stamping exercise.
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