It's bad news for the North Island this weekend with widespread rain forecast as Aucklanders prepare for a three-day break.
It comes as, about 3500km away off Australia's coast, Tropical Cyclone Kirrily is about to make landfall – and it's all connected, as NIWA meteorologist Ben Noll explained to 1News.
"Tropical Cyclone Kirrily, which is the fourth tropical cyclone of the season in the South Pacific, is gonna make landfall in Queensland tonight," he said. "And even though it's quite a distance away from New Zealand, over the weekend, the moisture from the cyclone will get wrapped into another low pressure system in the Tasman Sea."
That moisture will be pulled from Queensland to the North Island, Noll said.
"[The rain will arrive] Saturday, Sunday, and it may even linger into Monday," he said. "So, while it's not a direct impact from the cyclone, there is some of the moisture from the cyclone that will end up indirectly affecting us here.
"The unique aspect about the event, other than that cyclone connection, is the fact that the weather system over the North Island is going to be quite slow moving – so, it's going to probably arrive on Saturday in the western and lower portion of the island, and then it'll kind of hover over different parts of the island on Sunday and Monday."
The rain will be "persistent" and wind could pick up in places as well, Noll added.
"Not a great weekend for the Auckland Anniversary unfortunately, and there may be some heavier rain around the North Island.
"Particularly in the east, I would say, on Monday. It's probably a weekend best spent indoors."
The rainfall will be widespread and affect much of the North Island. Auckland will be impacted but it's not the only place.
"The good thing is that this weather system is... it's not a very localised heavy patch of rainfall," Noll explained. "This is more spread out."
Humidity is expected to be elevated for the North Island later Saturday and on Sunday before easing on Monday. It won't be as persistent as recent humid conditions.
And it's better news for the South Island – but nowhere is really set for beautiful summer days, Noll said.
"The weather's not gonna be quite as bad down there but it's not stunning either.
"There's the Nelson Anniversary, so that three-day weekend does look a little bit wet there on Saturday morning but then kind of easing probably for the rest of the weekend.
"And the South Island will be on the cooler side – especially as we go into Monday, when there's a southerly change that's forecast.
"So I think, holistically, it's not looking like the hottest of weekends."
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