It’s been 70 days since the All Blacks left Auckland and a nation more hopeful than expectant.
Tomorrow they will be World Cup winners for the fourth time or beaten finalists for the second.
A lot can happen in 70 days. Back on August 18 I had sat waiting for captain Sam Cane in an airport hotel lobby, nabbing him for 15 minutes between his morning meetings and the team’s pending departure.
He told me then that he had “great belief in what we’re trying to do and that’s easy to be enthusiastic about".
I had believed him. It’s easy to believe Cane because he’s not one to dissemble or to hide from his resolve.
Seven days later, the All Blacks were humbled 35-7 by the Springboks at Twickenham.
It was a record margin of victory for South Africa over New Zealand.
Their previous best was 17 points, a mark that had stood since before the onset of the Great Depression. It felt as though a lesser depression – the ones associated with New Zealand failing at World Cups - was now a certainty.
A lot can happen in 63 days
Here they are now on the cusp of creating the kind of history they want.
They’ve amassed some unwanted milestones over the last World Cup cycle.
They have lost a home series to Ireland, been beaten at home by Argentina, watched their coach get replaced before the World Cup even began, and leapt to his defence.
They’ve been shown more cards than a casino gambler. They have lost a pool game at a World Cup for the first time, going down 27-13 to France in the opening match.
A lot can happen in 49 days
After that loss to France, a record margin of defeat for the All Blacks at a Rugby World Cup, I wrote “France took their game to a new level after halftime, leaving the All Blacks struggling for rhythm".
"When the pressure was applied, New Zealand attempted to play percentage rugby. Unfortunately for them, it was low-percentage rugby.”
The All Blacks seemed uncertain of how they wanted to play the game, where and when they could manifest their potent attack, how and through who they could find that famed fifth gear that had helped them build a reputation for shutting teams down and shutting them out.
It was a team that looked caught between what they knew and what they did not. A team in a tactical no-man’s land, grasping at straws. Over the next few weeks that would change.
The All Blacks breezed through Namibia, embarrassed Italy so completely they should have invoked the mercy rule, and then held Uruguay to nil in a third straight thrashing. In three matches the aggregate score was 240-20.
To most this meant nothing. Of course the All Blacks should be making mincemeat of the minnows. If anything, the lopsided nature of New Zealand’s pool results only added to speculation that the “battle-hardened” Irish would expose weaknesses that the others had been unable to.
The world number one side would pulverise this mob.
A lot can happen in 22 days
There were whispers. Hushed tone emissaries bringing encouraging words. Things were humming along in the New Zealand bubble. They’d had the chance to escape the scrutiny and bed down in Lyon where the locals embraced the team, and the deep work could be done under deep cover.
They now returned to Paris to face an Irish team that had flipped the New Zealand game on its head since that breakthrough in Chicago in 2016.
Many gave them no chance to topple the top dogs. Someone forgot to tell the men in black. Someone forgot to tell the captain.
Cane had his third act redemptive story in Paris. Often under pressure as a captain and burdened by the unfair if not inevitable comparisons to Richie McCaw, Cane produced the most assured and impressive performance of his career.
The All Blacks followed the leader. Ireland’s talismanic loose forward, Peter O’Mahoney, who had famously made an unflattering comparison between Cane and McCaw during the last Test series in New Zealand, was rendered both impotent and invisible.
A lot can happen in 13 days
28-24. That was the end of Ireland at this World Cup. A World Cup they were destined to win, or at least be in the running to. Instead, it was New Zealand advancing to the semifinals with the Irish, under the unbearable weight of history, despatched to the Emerald Isles and the drawing board.
The win may have elevated the mood of the All Blacks’ fan base but the next question, as sure as death and taxes, was could the team climb back up the emotional mountain side in the semifinal against Argentina? The answer to that was an emphatic ‘yes'.
It was not so much the All Blacks’ seven tries that stood out in the 44-6 victory, but their composure.
Just as they had the week before against Ireland, the All Blacks forwards absorbed pressure without panic. The decision-making over the ball and around the ruck was precise and assured. The backline adjusted and readjusted its defensive set up, a variation of a try-scoring lineout play was carried off with aplomb.
If the devil is in the detail, this All Blacks side suddenly looked like one that had sold its soul at the crossroads.
A lot can happen in seven days
As New Zealand nursed their bumps and scrapes from the semifinal, the South Africans pulled off a miracle comeback and defeated England by one point in the second semifinal.
Two knockout matches, two points the aggregate margin. While New Zealand had looked to expand their repertoire, the Springboks contracted theirs.
When first-five Manie Libbok was substituted for veteran Handre Pollard after 31 minutes, the Springboks had effectively given up on trying anything expansive. This was park the bus, shut down, scrum down rugby. The Springboks revealed again the true structure of their DNA.
A lot can happen 80 minutes
And so here we are, 28 years after that enthralling, heart-stopping, nation-defining final match at Ellis Park in 1995. The Springboks, carrying seven forwards on the bench, will face an All Blacks side freshly imbued with attacking confidence. A team that will play one way only, against a team that has rediscovered the art of the tactical switch.
Though dressed in black, the All Blacks are far more capable of producing technicolour splendour than the men from the Rainbow Nation. That may not be enough, but it should still see the New Zealanders entering the match as favourites.
Alloyed to that extra crackle and pop is a set piece that has rarely faltered since the Twickenham humbling. The Springboks lineout was rattled against England while New Zealand’s has functioned better than any others at this tournament. The New Zealand scrum has been on an incline of steady gain since too. They will not fear the ‘bomb squad’ in the same way others do.
If you want to boil this match down to something definable, it will be the substitution strategy. South Africa have made changes early and often through the knock-out stages, but don’t be surprised to see the All Blacks deviate from the norm in this department. One of the hallmarks of the side’s last World Cup victory in 2015 was that they pulled the bench trigger earlier than most. Their standard 5-3 split is far more multi-dimensional than the Springbok’s is unorthodox.
A lot can happen in a moment
This will be a final of moments that matter, overseen by Wayne Barnes, a referee who understands those moments better than any other. If the All Blacks can find one more level, they will be too strong for South Africa. Any regression, and it could well be a different story. There should be reason for great optimism from the New Zealand fans. This is a team that is still to find its ceiling. If they find it in Paris and earn a record fourth world title, that would be a moment all of them would truly savour.
And a moment to reflect upon how much can happen in 72 days.
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