Analysis: TVNZ rugby experts Scotty Stevenson and Patrick McKendry discuss this weekend's first World Cup quarter-final, along with World Rugby's 'apex dimwittery'.
Scotty, let’s get straight to the point. How the heck do the All Blacks break down that Irish defence in their quarter-final in Paris on Sunday morning?
SS: At least buy me a drink first Pat! Look, there’s no easy solution to this, but I will make a couple of observations. First, that big green pack does not like going backwards, so New Zealand’s ball carries must be top drawer, and the carrier must have support on the shoulder either to find with the offload, or to have assistance at the breakdown. Ireland is probably the best jackal team in the competition, and they invariably compete for possession on the ground off the back of dominant tackles.
Ireland’s defensive set-up funnels traffic into the middle of the park, so width is crucial on attack. New Zealand must ask Ireland to defend right to the edge. The footy field is 70 metres across, but Ireland essentially squeeze the game into the central 40 metres, where the forwards can gather en masse, and win turnovers, and from where Jamison Gibson-Park and Johnny Sexton can launch transition offence left or right.
The Irish thrive when playing zone, and in many ways they are the closest approximation to a rugby league side in rugby. You can see that in both their defensive pressure and in their backline attack. New Zealand must draw them out of their familiar patterns, because they have rote learned those patterns. They could play them in their sleep. In that respect, Zombie is a perfect anthem.
Of course, the All Blacks would have left no stone unturned when planning for this one. What do you think will be inducing the most anxiety in the coaching staff?
PM: Prop Tyrel Lomax’s right knee injury. It’s a “minor” medial knee ligament strain according to the coaches and is “improving”, but he must be a big doubt to play. He’s only played nine minutes at this tournament after coming back from a bad cut near the same knee so he’s already underdone. As we know, Lomax is the best tighthead in the country and he will make a big difference in a scrum which will be tested for 80-plus minutes.
Beyond that, I’d say there will be a few anxious thoughts about whether the All Blacks can maintain their discipline in terms of potential high tackles and overstepping the last foot at the breakdown in their eagerness to challenge the Irish attack. Giving away too many penalties (ie, more than nine or 10) to this mob will be fatal. Add in the fact that a huge majority of the crowd will be extremely vocal in cheering for the Irish, and, like it or not, there will be pressure on the match officials to find fault with the All Blacks. I wrote about this on Sunday.
I agree there is huge pressure on the forwards to carry hard to get behind Ireland’s wall and that spotting and using the wide space will be imperative in taking the Irish out of their comfort zone. How do the backs capitalise on that? Is it wide passes (and risk going too lateral too early), or is it wide kicks (and risk giving the ball away)?
SS: Interesting point about the New Zealand discipline. Let’s be honest, though, Sexton is hardly the most popular player with match officials. Ireland will have a great crowd behind them, for sure, but the officials for this one have all experienced partisan crowds. The All Blacks should be more concerned with the broadcast replay director and big screen operator than the paying punters. I reckon the All Blacks will be in the referee’s ear this week about Ireland’s forwards sealing off. A couple of penalties against Ireland in a strength area and Sexton could get rattled.
But back to the backline. Again, there is a tendency to overcomplicate. Barrett v Aki will be juicy as a match up and you’d assume he’ll be used to batter the midfield. Some deception and second man play from Richie Mo’unga would be useful in this match. Sexton is Ireland’s key playmaker and I would think Mo’unga will rise to that challenge, too. The wide kick has been used to good effect by both teams in this tournament and that play, when Ireland is squeezing in, still resonates with me. As does the chip into the space behind the front line with Barrett/Jordan in pursuit.
It will be fascinating to see if the All Black wings back themselves to take defenders on the outside. Scotland had opportunities to do that but opted almost exclusively to cut back in field. I say ‘almost exclusively’ because they did have a crack a couple of times, and they scored.
Thinking about this, I am convinced the selection of centre would have been debated at length by Ian Foster et al. Rieko Ioane came into this tournament as the favoured option, but Anton Leinert-Brown has been low key sneaky good in the opportunities he’s been given. I’d go as far to say the tactical ability and game awareness of whomever wears the All Black 13 jersey will be a deciding factor in the outcome.
Are you over the truly unbalanced quarter-final line up, resulting from a draw made three years too early?
PM: Before I go there… I know both teams will want to rattle the opposite No.10 – it’s the aim of every rugby team – but given Sexton’s recent behaviour as a self-appointed arbiter on all things fair or otherwise on a pitch, I daresay the All Blacks will be eager to give him a special welcome. Sexton clearly doesn’t like to be challenged so a couple of hard (and legal, of course) early contacts could affect the morale of both teams.
As for the draw, yes it has become a little embarrassing for World Rugby, hasn’t it? After this weekend two of the top four teams in the world - Ireland, France, South Africa or New Zealand - will be going home. The quality of the four on the other side of the draw – Wales, England, Argentina and Fiji - doesn’t excite quite as much, although every neutral will be hoping the Flying Fijians can get past an English team as appealing as a stubbed toe.
By the way, an informed source has suggested to me that the draw is done ridiculously early to enable tour operators to sell hospitality packages (of which World Rugby makes a cut). It’s an interesting (and potentially damning) theory.
Your reference to Lienert-Brown is a fascinating one but I think the selectors will bank on Ioane’s pure pace and power in the midfield.
Other selections during this tournament will come under sharp focus if the All Blacks fail on Sunday, too. I’m now in danger of officially banging on about this but Ireland have stuck with their top team pretty much throughout the pool phase, whereas the All Blacks made nine changes for the Uruguay win (and it showed in the first quarter).
It seems to me that Ireland’s sole focus has been this quarter-final, whereas the All Blacks coaches have been hedging their bets and are looking towards the semifinal and final. Am I on the right track or on the road to nowhere?
SS: Rugby revels in creating situations for itself that defy good sense, and drawing the pools almost three years in advance of the world cup is another stunning example of apex dimwittery. One shouldn’t be surprised to learn that the venue for that draw was the former home of the Paris Stock Exchange, built at the behest of Napoleon. Nothing reflects World Rugby values like an academically dull neoclassical edifice constructed by an authoritarian to house risky bets on future valuations.
Which brings us to your bet-hedging theory - neither the All Blacks nor Ireland are in any position to hedge. They must go all in on this match. I don’t doubt that as the tournament progresses teams start making broader mental calculations, but the only calculation that is required here is the zero-sum kind. Ireland can’t be that arrogant to think they have the winning hand. The All Blacks have had any such notion punched out of them in recent seasons.
I would argue if any team was solely focused on this match, it is the team in black. And they won’t have looked further, despite being the only side in this contest that has gone farther. (Yes, I went there).
Different contexts dictate selection, and Ireland had a significantly tougher pool than New Zealand, which would have had an impact on squad choice. They are paying a price for that with several minor but niggly injuries to contend with. That’s not surprising given how hard this team has had to work in its last two outings.
Hey, there will be the usual psychobabble bulldust this week as both sides attempt to play underdog. The word “respect” will be uttered with zero conviction at least 764 times. And then there’s that pesky “never made it past the quarterfinals” subplot neatly contrasting with the world number one tag. Which of these sides is best equipped to deal with the attention?
PM: Hang on a minute, just mentally filing “apex dim-wittery” away to use in the future…
The All Blacks are probably best equipped for the mental stuff this week, given the pressure they’ve become used to at World Cups. I truly don’t know if it will count for anything, but they have flown a little under the radar in France while Ireland now have the growing support (and expectation) of a whole nation living in a similar time zone. That will be coming through too in every press conference attended by an Irish press pack increasingly excited about having their stay in France extended.
Talk to me about the other quarter-final in Paris this weekend before maybe finally touching on Portugal’s performance in upsetting Fiji (while still allowing Fiji into the quarters at the expense of the Wallabies) in what must qualify as the perfect scenario for rugby romantics in the South Pacific (excluding Australia).
SS: First, because you didn’t ask, I’m picking New Zealand to win the quarter-final based largely on the belief they have more room for improvement than the Irish and a higher ceiling on individual skill level.
You know I’m not much of an each-way punter, but I can’t separate South Africa and France. Both have enormous upside – France the crowd, the return of Dupont, and perhaps a touch more panache, South Africa the tried and tested tournament blueprint, and an infinite supply of Calvinist chutzpah. I can’t see this game decided by any number not divisible by three.
As for the Portuguese, did we not pick them as our pick of the minnows last week? That was a fabulous denouement to the pool stage, and how about those Portuguese fans? What an epic experience for those players. Rugby World Cups need more matches like that - more fairy tales and fewer processions. To imagine Eddie Jones sweating it out until the last second of pool play made the whole episode even more satisfying. Mind you, he’s building a team for the next World Cup, so I guess this one didn’t really matter.
One last thing to say about the final game: Wow, Fiji was bad. I can think of only two performances worse than that: William Shatner’s Seeking Major Tom album, listened to in its entirety, and me as Sergeant Robinson in the 1991 Bream Bay College production of The Pohutukawa Tree.
So the team formerly known as Fiji take on England and Wales meet Argentina. I feel the north may dominate these fixtures, which could set up a first ever all six nations final four. Where are you on those games? And how about a couple of other reciprocal picks, too?
PM: I take no pleasure in saying this but since you picked Scotland to upset Ireland and I picked the Irish to win by 20 (it was 22 in the end), I have a bad feeling about Sunday from an All Blacks’ fan’s perspective. New Zealand have the ability but will have to be pretty special to win.
Similarly, I fear England may suffocate a tiring Fiji, but Wales v Argentina is a genuine head-scratcher for me. France over the Boks in the other.
Merci and at ease, Sergeant.
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