The death of ACT candidate Neil Christensen has triggered a by-election for the Port Waikato electorate, which could have ramifications for which parties wind up in power after October 14.
New Zealand’s electoral laws mean parliament will have 121 MPs after the by-election instead of its usual 120, according to chief electoral officer Karl Le Quesne.
People in the Port Waikato general electorate can and should still go ahead and vote, he said.
“Party votes in the Port Waikato electorate will be counted in the General Election results.
“Port Waikato electorate votes will not be counted, and a by-election will be held after the election to elect a member of Parliament.”
When the preliminary results are announced on election night, and the official results are released on November 3, they will be based on a 120-seat Parliament with 71 electorate MPs and 49 list MPs (unless there is an overhang).
But when the by-election is held in Port Waikato and an electorate MP is elected, it will increase the size of parliament to 121 seats.
Why do we have this by-election rule?
This piece of electoral law was copied over from the days of First Past the Post (FPP), constitutional lawyer Graeme Edgeler told Breakfast today.
He said the rule about having a by-election when a candidate dies before polling day made sense under FPP, where what mattered was who won each electorate.
“They kept [this rule] when we adopted MMP and I don’t think they should have because [under] MMP, what’s supposed to matter is the party vote and parties are supposed to get [seats] proportional to their party vote,” Edgeler said.
“In this case, because of this little quirk, the proportionality is going to be a little off, probably.”
How might this affect the overall election results?
The Port Waikato by-election could be a major determining factor if parliament was at a 60-60 split following the general election.
Edgeler said in that scenario, parties would probably wait for the by-election to take place before forming a government.
“Or it could be obvious to everyone that National is very likely to win the by-election and people in their discussions of whom [they should] form a government with will take that into account.”
The death of Port Waikato candidate Neil Christensen has highlighted a quirk of our electoral system that means we will end up with more MPs after the election, as constitutional lawyer Graeme Edgeler explains. (Source: Breakfast)
The current MP for Port Waikato is National’s Andrew Bayly, who had been favoured to win back his seat.
Edgeler said if Bayly does win the by-election he could choose not to resign as a list MP and just swap over to being an electorate MP.
“If he was to take that choice, the number of seats wouldn’t rise to 121,” he said.
“But obviously for National, they want as many MPs as they can get.”
Depending on how the election results roll out on Saturday night, picking up one extra MP could make all the difference for a National and ACT coalition in what is looking like a tight race to get to 61 seats.
However, these equations could change again if Te Pāti Māori wins an overhang seat and bring about a potential 61-61 split in the House. A coalition government would then need 62 seats to hold the majority.
As always, these potential paths to power will be clearer after the votes are counted on October 14.
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