Analysis: Not even former coach Sir Steve Hansen predicted this many changes to an in-form team one week out from a potential quarter-final, writes Patrick McKendry.
If the All Blacks qualify for the World Cup knockout stages by beating Uruguay on Friday but then lose their quarter-final a week later there will inevitably be questions about why the selectors opted to rest so many key players against the South Americans, thereby putting at risk a combination that appeared to be growing so promisingly.
Like it or not, the selectors have picked their match-day squad for a team ranked No.17 in the world with an eye not only on the probable knockout game the following Sunday but also a potential semifinal a week later and a final after that.
Few could have predicted this many changes to a team which had suffered for its stuttering attack in its two recent defeats to South Africa and France but had appeared to have re-discovered its offensive mojo against Italy. It also appears to go against the All Blacks' usual "one-game-at-a-time" mantra which has become especially strident at World Cups.
Head coach Ian Foster, a selector along with Joe Schmidt and Jason Ryan, admitted this morning that he was looking beyond Uruguay and even the quarter-final, saying the trio have gone on pure data – the workload carried by each player thus far – but also a feel for how players generally respond to that workload.
But in resting key players such as Brodie Retallick, Aaron Smith, Rieko Ioane, Mark Telea and Beauden Barrett, the selectors have rolled the dice.
In fact, they have even gone against the predictions of former head coach Sir Steve Hansen, who was expecting minimal changes for a game they must win ahead of what is likely to be a formidable challenge against Ireland in Paris.
“They will probably will pick most of those guys again, I should think, and really start looking forward to cementing their game,” Hansen told Sky Sport after the recent 96-17 demolition of Italy in Lyon.
"So, roll into the next one. I can't see them changing the team too much. And they will now just start building for that quarter-final.''
The Retallick decision seems straightforward enough, even though he’s played only two full games (plus a handful of minutes in the opener against France on his return from injury), because, like the great Richie McCaw, the big lock responds well after breaks – even significant ones.
Smith has carried plenty of responsibility at this tournament and has started in two out of three matches (and was on the bench for the Namibia win) and is probably due for a total break, but the biggest risks appear attached to the resting of centre Ioane and fullback Barrett, although the latter has started all three matches.
Ioane, who started against France and was on the bench against Namibia before retaining the No.13 jersey against Italy, has played only one match alongside Jordie Barrett at this tournament – a combination that would appear one of the most important with a quarter-final approaching.
Barrett at least is on the reserves bench as a back-up to starting fullback Damian McKenzie.
Of those who are starting against Uruguay, prop Tyrel Lomax, hooker Codie Taylor, blindside flanker Shannon Frizell, first-five Richie Mo’unga, second-five Jordie Barrett and right wing Will Jordan are all good chances to start again in a quarter-final.
Prop Ethan de Groot, still suspended this week, will probably reclaim the No.1 jersey the following week.
Time will tell whether the selectors have erred but it must be remembered too that while Hansen was involved with the All Blacks for a few days near the start of the tournament in a casual capacity, he hasn’t been closely connected to the squad for a long time.
Also, while he must be considered the most successful All Blacks coach ever, having built a formidable record during his eight-year tenure in charge, Hansen had regrets about a few of his decisions in the final stages of the 2019 World Cup.
He has gone on the record as saying he regretted not driving standards enough during the week of the England semifinal defeat due to Kieran Read's injury, plus selecting Scott Barrett at blindside flanker ahead of Sam Cane.
Not playing Ben Smith in that 19-7 loss was also regretted.
The pain from that England defeat remains for many in this squad. Maybe that will help drive a different level of desperation in their knockout match when the old firm reunite.
All Blacks: 15. Damian McKenzie, 14. Will Jordan, 13. Anton Lienert-Brown, 12. Jordie Barrett, 11. Leicester Fainga'anuku, 10. Richie Mo'unga, 9. Cam Roigard; 8. Luke Jacobson, 7. Sam Cane (captain), 6. Shannon Frizell, 5. Tupou Vaa'i, 4. Sam Whitelock, 3. Tyrel Lomax, 2. Codie Taylor, 1. Ofa Tu'ungafasi.
Reserves: 16. Samisoni Taukei'aho, 17. Tamaiti Williams, 18. Fletcher Newell, 19. Scott Barrett, 20. Ethan Blackadder, 21. Finlay Christie, 22. Beauden Barrett, 23. Caleb Clarke.
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