South Africa director of rugby Rassie Erasmus has put the spotlight on Ireland’s curious and potentially perilous position at the World Cup ahead of its final and crucial pool match against Scotland.
Ireland, the No.1 team in the world, are currently second in Pool B behind South Africa (who have played an extra game) and could be knocked out of the tournament if they lose to the Scots in Paris next Sunday morning NZT.
The Irish remain unbeaten thus far, having accounted for the world champion Springboks 13-8 in an absorbing pool game at the Stade de France, but if Scotland beat Ireland and deny them a losing bonus point, Andy Farrell’s team could be out.
Their current form would suggest they should beat an improving Scotland, who lost 18-3 to the Boks in their pool match, but the Irish have never won a World Cup quarter-final and the pressure will be on to field their strongest team which could have ramifications a week later if they make it.
They are odds-on to face the All Blacks in a quarter-final in Paris on October 15.
"With full humbleness, and there is no arrogance saying this, but I'd rather sit here than be Ireland knowing that we've been No.1 in the world all the time and Scotland basically just have to beat them by eight points and they are out of the tournament,” Erasmus said after his side beat Tonga 49-18 in Marseille.
"Basically, as I understand it, if Scotland beat Ireland by more than eight points and Ireland don't get a bonus point then Ireland is out.
“We would be first, Scotland second and Ireland out. If Scotland beat Ireland 8-0, Ireland are out.
"That's how I see it. I was thinking about that a lot last night."
Erasmus, effectively the Boks' head coach, added: "The other permutation, which is the interesting one, is when all three of us are on 15 points. Then the team with the best net-o points (points difference) first of all goes through. If Scotland's net-o points is the best, then Scotland will go through and we will fall out as Ireland beat us. First it goes to net-o points, then for the second team it is who beat who.
"For that to happen Scotland must score four tries and beat Ireland by more than 20 points and Ireland must get one bonus point somehow. There are three or four very interesting permutations. But if I was Scotland I'd just want to beat them by eight points and not even score a try.
"Of the three teams we are probably the most comfortable sitting here knowing we have got a two-week rest. Look, maybe we have got six months rest if the cards don't fall our way.
"We have got two weeks off where we can analyse all three teams that we can possibly play. I always thought the Ireland-Scotland game was going to be nervy, just like the France-Italy game will be nervy. I know everybody writes off Italy and though Italy are not used to playing against southern hemisphere teams they are used to playing against northern hemisphere teams. There are going to be some interesting permutations still in the rest of this World Cup."
Only two teams – Wales and England – are guaranteed quarter-final spots.
In Pool A, where the All Blacks are second (by three points) behind France, the All Blacks will clinch the spot with an expected bonus point win over Uruguay on Friday. France will top the pool if they avoid defeat against Italy but if the Azzurri, who lost 96-17 to the All Blacks, score a bonus point victory over France they could knock the hosts out of the tournament.
In Pool C, Fiji need only a losing bonus point against Portugal to qualify second behind Wales which will send Australia home early.
In Pool D, the winner of Japan v Argentina will qualify second behind England.
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