TVNZ rugby experts Scotty Stevenson and Patrick McKendry discuss the demolition of the Azzurri, the changes that could be coming for the final pool match against Uruguay, and the best World Cup 'minnow'.
Scotty, we’ll start with the All Blacks and the question that’s probably on every fan’s mind: Was their 14-try 96-17 thrashing of Italy evidence that they have the quality to win this thing, or was it merely evidence they can put a big score on a side which appeared to concede defeat halfway through the first half?
SS: The reaction to that performance intrigues me. Before the game there was genuine anxiety in New Zealand about the supposedly ‘vastly improved’ Italian side. The media coverage built that tension, too. From an optics point of view, this was something of a no-win for the All Blacks. If they won, well, it was because Italy was terrible. If they had struggled, it would have been their own failings at fault.
I look at this result at a deeper level than the scoreline. The first 10 minutes was instructive in that the All Blacks let the game come to them, and as such they were very precise in their breakdown work and gain-line play. In essence they had learnt that they don’t have to make a big play at every single ruck. Essentially, that they can absorb pressure to create opportunities in the areas of the field they can attack from. They fell back into old habits in the 10-minute period either side of the break, and they were penalised accordingly.
Forget the Italian resistance (or lack of it), this was a genuinely well-orchestrated victory built on forward dominance (Jason Ryan’s fingerprints are all over that pack now and his celebrations in the coaches’ box were almost my favourite part of the coverage) and I think it provides plenty of evidence that the All Blacks are trending upwards while the other teams at the top table may have plateaued.
I realise that’s a big call to make on Ireland, France and South Africa, but I don’t think any of those three teams would have torn the Italians to shreds like the All Blacks did. I guess we’ll see where the French are at when they take on Italy this weekend. Can you see Italy troubling the home side at all?
PM: I agree with the “no-win” element to the Italy match for the All Blacks and agree too that the momentum generated by the pack sparked many if not all their attacking opportunities.
They still needed composure, though, and the clinical finishing was impressive. Yes, the All Blacks won’t get that consistent momentum against Ireland or whoever they play in the quarter-final, but they don’t necessarily need to. Just two or three opportunities could result in a blitz that could take the game away from the opposition. And they showed they have the attacking variation to do that.
The France v Italy pool game was always looming as crucial and before they fell so badly to the All Blacks I expected the Azzurri to be competitive at least. I’m not sure now because they appeared mentally broken even at halftime in Lyon.
History suggests France will have a poor pool game at some point but that may have been against Uruguay, whom they beat only 27-12 thanks to two converted tries in the final 25 minutes. I think France will put a good score on Italy but it won’t be anywhere near 96 points.
Speaking of potential upsets, Pool B is looking a bit spicy with Scotland having the potential to knock Ireland out of the tournament in their final pool game next Sunday. The Irish will have to field their strongest team which could leave them vulnerable a week later if they progress. What do you make of Scotland’s chances? And what do you think of Rassie Erasmus’ observations in saying he wouldn’t want to be in Ireland’s shoes?
SS: It’s a fabulous final week match-up in Pool B, marred by some classic mischief-making from South African coach Jacques Nienaber who has fallen happily headlong down an imaginary rabbit hole of potential match-fixing in the Scotland-Ireland clash. It’s insane that a rival coach would resort to something that incredible. Mind you, it’s Rassie’s world and Jacques and the rest of us are just living in it.
Here’s the premutation: Scotland must win while denying Ireland a bonus-point to progress to the quarterfinals as pool runner-up. That would mean Ireland are out of the tournament. Ireland needs two points from the match to leapfrog South Africa as top qualifier. That would put Scotland out. If Scotland win by 21 points and claim a bonus point and Ireland also claim a bonus point, then all three sides would be tied on 15 points. In that case there will be a three-way egg-and-spoon race followed by 10 rounds of beer pong and a general knowledge quiz to determine who progresses.
I like the way Scotland have played and made the point a couple of weeks ago here that Gregor Townsend would have earmarked this match months in advance. Scotland has the attack to pierce the armour of Ireland. They have some history to overcome, for sure, but I’m not prepared to write them off. This is a pressure match for both sides and Ireland has not exactly enjoyed the pressure at World Cups. Colour me fascinated.
I’m just as fascinated by the winner-take-all Japan v Argentina clash in Pool D. Some insiders believe this Japanese side may be a little old to get the job done, but Argentina were abjectly awful against England and sternly tested against Samoa. Do you think the Brave Blossoms could spring another World Cup trap here?
PM: I’ve been a bit disappointed with Japan after their success in the last two World Cups (notably their famous pool win over the Boks in Brighton in 2015 and pool victories over Ireland and Scotland in 2019).
I felt they were a bit passive in their 34-12 defeat to England last month and while that’s their only loss, they weren’t that convincing in their 28-22 victory over Samoa.
There may be something in that age observation because they just haven’t played with the same energy.
But the same could be said of Argentina — as you say, they were awful in losing to a 14-man England and not much better in their 19-10 win over Samoa — wing Emiliano Boffelli effectively carried his team across the finish line in the latter.
Can Japan (ranked 12th) pull off another World Cup upset against Argentina (9th)? Yes I think they will, and it will be a triumph for attacking rugby over whatever the Pumas are attempting at the moment.
Wales have already qualified of course, which means the only other significant pool match remaining is Fiji v Portugal. Fiji need only a point from this match to make a quarter-final.
We’ve spoken about Fiji and the joy they have already brought this tournament, but what have you made of Portugal, who been competitive in all their pool matches — a 28-8 loss to Wales, an 18-18 draw against Georgia and a 34-14 defeat to Australia? Has their skill and attacking ambition surprised you?
SS: Portugal have been a greatly improved under the watch of the Bayonne Express, Patrice Lagisquet, and certainly have a great understanding of their attack structures. It was good to see them bank some points against Georgia (another side that has been very disappointing this tournament) and they were in the fight against the Australians. In fact, they were the better team in almost every key statistic but played a little too much footy on the back foot.
I don’t think they’ll be able to match the Fijians this weekend, not with so much on the line. Nice of Eddie Jones to offer a Cava shout, though. If I was to rank my ‘minnows’ in this tournament, Portugal would be number one. Others with far more rugby history have been completely underwhelming.
While we’re on the minnows, the All Blacks get their final hit out before the quarter-finals against a Uruguayan side that should not trouble them greatly. There is nothing they can do about the pool draw but their selection mindset will definitely be in the spotlight tomorrow morning. I’m picking Ardie Savea gets a break from starting duties tomorrow. What are you picking as the major discussion points in the line-up?
PM: If I’m Ian Foster and company I’m sticking with the same backline that played Italy. Now that Jordie Barrett has returned, that line-up is probably as strong as it gets, and I think familiarity with combinations is key now. I’d pick Cam Roigard and Damian McKenzie on the bench and perhaps Leicester Fainga’anuku there too at the expense of Anton Lienert-Brown. I just think Fainga’anuku’s impact off the bench in a quarter-final would be greater.
Sam Cane will start, along with Tyrel Lomax and Shannon Frizell. I’d put Ethan Blackadder in the mix, too. Maybe Sam Whitelock starts ahead of Scott Barrett at lock? Hooker Samisoni Taukei’aho is also due game time.
Prediction time: who have you got in the big one, Ireland v Scotland in Paris on Sunday morning NZT, and why?
SS: All evidence points to an Ireland win here, but I have one of those definitely not to be trusted and I should know better feelings that Scotland could get the job done. I don’t think they’ll be good enough to earn the bonus point but, again, they would have had their eye on this match for months and they have a challenging offence that could create some chaos for the Irish to deal with.
Scotland were not great in the opening match against the Springboks but they were far too much for Tonga and Romania, and there have been incremental improvements on their problem areas (well, scrum, mainly) over the last couple of weeks. The clash between Russell and Sexton at flyhalf will be fabulous to watch.
Scotland had a terrible day out when these sides met at Twickenham in the Six Nations. They are a better team than the 7-22 scoreline that day suggests. Turnovers killed them then, and if they keep things tidy and find a kick-pass balance that earns territorial advantage, they can definitely take the win this weekend.
I know you have read that while shaking your head. What’s your pick?
PM: Correct. Ireland by 20.
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