What happens when Winston Peters goes into coalition talks?

There is a long-running joke at election time that the country votes and then New Zealand First leader Winston Peters decides who the next government is.

Peters and his party have held the balance of power following three different elections in the MMP era, and polling suggests they may well hold the keys to the parliamentary castle again after October 14.

Coalition talks with Peters have a history of high political theatre, while the coalition deals that eventuated from them have always ended under a cloud.

So, as the major parties – and the country – prepares for another round of potential Peters coalition talks, we look back at the history of what’s becoming a political tradition.

The 1996 election was New Zealand’s first under MMP.

When the dust settled after election day, National held 44 seats while Labour had 37, leaving neither with the majority they needed to form a government.

NZ First had a strong showing on election night, winning 13% of the vote and 17 seats, thus giving them the balance of power.

The party had the choice of forming a government with National or going into coalition with Labour and the now-defunct Alliance party.

The negotiations to form the new government dragged on for two months. (Yes, you read that correctly – the country was without a properly functioning government for two months.)

Many people had figured NZ First would choose to go with Labour, given Peters had spent much of the election campaign attacking his former National party colleagues.

But NZ First ultimately chose to side with National.

Then-National leader Jim Bolger later said he found out about that decision around the same time as the public.

As part of the deal, Peters was given the role of Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer.

It did not.

Tensions between the coalition partners ratcheted up when Jenny Shipley rolled Bolger as National leader and Prime Minister in 1997.

Shipley eventually sacked Peters from Cabinet in 1998, at which point Peters ended the coalition deal.

NZ First’s support then plummeted at the 1999 election, with the party unable to reach the 5% threshold. Peters did, however, manage to hold on to his Tauranga seat.

While New Zealand First didn’t reach the highs of its 1996 result, its seven list MPs in 2005 were enough for it to form an agreement with Labour and its leader, Helen Clark.

Labour didn’t have the majority it needed to form a government and entered into a supply-and-confidence arrangement with NZ First and United Future. That agreement came one month after election day.

Peters was made Minister of Foreign Affairs outside of Cabinet as part of that deal, which raised a few eyebrows after he had previously spoken of not wanting “the baubles of office”.

Mostly.

Peters stepped down as Foreign Minister towards the end of that three-year term due to allegations of fraud relating to political donations. Peters was later cleared of fraud by the Serious Fraud Office, the Electoral Commission and police.

NZ First was then dumped out of parliament entirely at the 2008 election, after failing to secure any electorates or meet the 5% threshold.

But Peters promised his party would be back – and he was right.

Back in 2017, “Jacindamania” swept the country, pushing Labour within sniffing distance of forming a government after being in the poll doldrums just weeks out from the election.

But once again, any government was going to need the support of one Winston Peters and his NZ First party.

Although the coalition negotiations were nowhere near as drawn out as those from 1996, Peters wouldn’t reveal his cards despite many (many) attempts from the media to draw them out of him.

Finally, on October 19, nearly four weeks after the election, Peters announced live on air that NZ First would be entering a coalition with the Labour party. He was again made Deputy Prime Minister as part of that deal.

Both National and Labour learned of his decision at the same time as the rest of New Zealand. Jacinda Ardern’s partner, Clarke Gayford, told Seven Sharp there was “much emotion in the room” as Labour learned it would be forming the next government.

It did, despite the many predictions that a coalition made up of Labour, the Greens, and NZ First would never last three years.

The relationship between Labour and NZ did eventually break down however, probably not helped by the fact NZ First failed to make it back into government at the 2020 election.

Now it’s election time again and Peters is once more looking like he will decide who will govern after October 14.

For what it’s worth, Labour’s Chris Hipkins has ruled out working with New Zealand First, while National’s Christopher Luxon has said he would rather not work with Peters but will if he has to.

But as history shows, what is said during an election campaign is not always reflected in the negotiations that come later.

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Watch this space.

Winston Peters will be live on Q+A with Jack Tame this morning. You can watch the programme on TVNZ 1 or stream it on 1news.co.nz from 9am.