Analysis: After another exciting weekend of rugby featuring some intriguing results, TVNZ's Scotty Stevenson breaks down what it all means for the rest of the Rugby World Cup.
New Zealand won’t fear South Africa or Ireland
As far as tough Test matches go, the battle for top spot in Pool B lived up to expectations, but neither Ireland nor South Africa should have the All Blacks losing sleep ahead of the quarterfinals. If that sounds like a bold call, hear me out.
Close to 60% of that match was played in the respective redzones and yet just two tries were scored. Put another way, the average haul from a 22-metre entry was a paltry 1.1 points. For all South Africa’s power, and Ireland’s pretty-to-watch structure, those numbers do not paint a picture of tactical dominance or attacking brilliance.
The raw numbers at set piece also paint an unflattering picture, especially for the world number one side. Ireland’s scrum success was just 71% while the lineout returned just 67% of potential possession. Add in the concession of 12 turnovers, and you would have to think a more dynamic transition team (the All Blacks have long been the masters here) may well have made Ireland pay a heavier price.
Ireland does now have the benefit of a bye week to recover physically but will still have to overcome a solid Scotland side in the final week of pool play to finish on top, if South Africa achieve a bonus point win against Tonga, who in turn were soundly defeated over the weekend by the Scots. South Africa’s 7-1 bench strategy did not pay a dividend against Ireland and with goal kicking becoming a greater concern, expect the coaching staff to return to a more conservative bench approach for the remainder of the tournament.
Australia’s fan exodus was a sad sight
In a rare episode of self-control, this correspondent will resist the urge to apply the sodium chloride to the freshest, and perhaps deepest, cut on Eddie Jones. The Australian head coach’s shortcomings have been discussed here before, and all were laid bare in Lyon.
A lack of playmaker experience was always going to be the biggest plague on the House of Eddie and boy did it show in what was effectively a knock-out game. Wales duly played proficient, absorbant Test match rugby while the Australian performance would have struggled to win a flag in a suburban club final.
Watching Australian fans leave the stadium en masse with 15 minutes remaining in the match is a haunting vision of the pending apocalypse. Already under pressure following an historic defeat to Fiji, the Australian tactics could not have been more at odds with what was required against a Welsh side backed by exactly no one before the tournament began. Australia played all the rugby in the first half, and almost exclusively in the wrong half of the field. In the second they failed to fire a shot.
This was a record defeat for Australia, both at a World Cup and at the hands of Wales. With one match remaining against Portugal (surely they couldn’t lose that) and two games in hand for the Fijians (against Georgia and Portugal), Australia is odds on to be heading home before the knockout phase begins. That leaves the game across the ditch in the most wretched state one can remember.
It also pays to remember, before New Zealanders bask freely in the radiant glow of some serious schadenfreude, Australia now stands as the only regular competition for the professional game here. With equity already an issue for Rugby Australia coupled with an uncertain broadcast future in a market dominated by its rival codes the NRL and AFL, watching fans walk out on a team in a the flagship global tournament should give fans and administrators in this country pause for thought.
Samoa stays in the fight
England look set to run away with Pool D but the battle for the second qualification spot is heating up. Samoa showed enough against the Pumas to suggest they are not out of the hunt but they will rue the last minute penalty goal for Nicholas Sanchez which robbed them of a losing bonus point.
Samoa couldn’t quite find their balance against the Pumas, overplaying the kicking game, while struggling to gain ruck ball at lightning speed. They allowed the Argentinians to carry (130 times to Samoa’s 58) but also defended with stout hearts and made crucial turnover plays at regular times.
There was enough in the performance to give this Samoan side a shot of hope to upend Japan this weekend, something they did in the Pacific Nations Championship earlier in the season. It is now a must-win for both sides which will add the requisite spice to the contest.
That all said, Argentina remains in the box seat for the quarterfinals despite two lacklustre performances. They remain a point adrift of Japan and Samoa but should have no trouble bonus point shopping against Chile, before finishing pool play against the Brave Blossoms in the final week. If Japan beats Samoa this weekend, that final game against the Pumas will be a winner-take-all affair.
Jac Morgan is the free spirit rugby needs
Morgan was a one-man highlight reel for Wales in their record thumping of Australia and I for one hope he never changes. Openside flankers are not supposed to do the things Jac Morgan does on a rugby field, and Morgan doesn’t seem to care. How could you not admire that.
Two moments in the match stand out. The first was a brilliant running line through the midfield and a subsequent in-ball to halfback Gareth Davies for the first try. The second was a colossal kick from a defensive lineout which led to a 50-22 and a 70-metre gain for his side.
Morgan’s freewheeling style is neatly complemented by Taulupe Faletau’s teak-tough number 8 play, and the underestimated contribution of blindside flanker Aaron Wainwright. It was a perfectly balanced loose-forward trio, which combined for Morgan’s own try late in the match.
In an age of hyper-scrutiny and spreadsheet analysis, Morgan is the kind of player who does not fit in a box. He plays the game hard, but he also does it with a sense of enjoyment. He also played the game for 60 minutes with what appeared to be a tampon stuffed in each nostril. That was indeed a sight to behold.
Scotland would like to remind you they are still here
With all this talk about Ireland and South Africa, Scotland must be wondering what they have to do to get a shred of credit. Having shellacked Tonga, the side now faces points pinata Romania while Ireland has a week off. A bonus point against the Romanians feels academic.
With South Africa likely to claim a bonus point victory against Tonga, Pool B will look like this ahead of the final match of the round robin:
1. South Africa (15)
2. Ireland (14)
3. Scotland (10)
It may be a long shot but can we at least acknowledge the fact Scotland will still be a chance to cause the upset of all upsets and knock Ireland out of the cup at Stade de France on October 8? There is a lot to admire about the way the Scots are playing and they will have had their eyes on the Ireland fixture from the moment the draw was announced.
Ireland may be on an eight-match win streak in this fixture (Scotland last beat them in 2017) but the match will effectively be a an early quarterfinal and we all know the history there… I’ll just leave that thought with you, in the spirit of balance…
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