Analysis: TVNZ commentator and sports writer Scotty Stevenson and 1News sports writer Patrick McKendry discuss a World Cup result to warm the heart, England's pragmatism and the All Blacks' potential quarter-final opponents.
PM: Scotty, the Wallabies’ loss to Fiji wasn’t necessarily a shock as such but it highlighted how far the Aussies have fallen since Dave Rennie’s dismissal and Eddie Jones’ arrival. A penny for Rennie’s thoughts… but in the meantime I’ll take yours. What did you make of that game and the Wallabies in general?
SS: I had no idea the Wallabies were at the World Cup because the only Australian who seems to matter is Eddie Jones. Just ask him. Everything is about him. His acolytes will say he’s simply taking the heat for a young and decidedly average squad, but at this point in his coaching career surely it is obvious to everyone that Jones is the self-proclaimed star of a one-man pantomime act playing to an ever-dwindling audience in a crumbling church hall.
My thoughts on Jones have been articulated many times, and nothing he has done since taking over the Australia job and amassing a 1-6 record has given me even the slightest inkling to re-evaluate my opinion. Jones picked the team and therefore can’t seriously use “they’re young” as an excuse. It leaves one to wonder whether his selections were based upon which players had the least exposure to his (popular) predecessor.
In any case, Fiji were the worthy winners, but they have some areas of their own game to address - areas that a (marginally) better team may have been able to take advantage of.
And on that note, Pat, how far do you think this Fijian side can go in this tournament and, furthermore, how important for the sport to have a team like Fiji playing a style of rugby that, well, actually looks like fun?
PM: Fiji can conceivably make the semifinals. The Aussies aren’t guaranteed to make the top two in their pool even if they beat Wales next Monday – should the Wallabies and Fiji finish equal on points, Fiji will go through based on their head-to-head result, and they could face England in a quarter-final. We all know what happened at Twickenham recently so, as I say, the Flying Fijians could be on the wing deep into this tournament.
Their major issue will be ensuring their set piece remains competitive. They lost six lineouts against the Wallabies and while their final scrum won a very impressive penalty to ice the game, that too was inconsistent (they lost four out of 11 on their own put in). Should they face England in a quarter, the clash of styles will likely be very evident… and more on this shortly, I’m sure.
Fiji and fun? They must be everyone’s second favourite team – their style and joie de vivre is utterly irresistible.
Meanwhile, what of the other Pasifika nations? I thought Tonga’s attack was disappointing in their defeat to Ireland, while Manu Samoa cruised past Chile as expected.
SS: I did fear Tonga’s pack was not going to be able to go toe to toe with the best teams in the tournament, and that pool draw was a major downer for Ikale Tahi. The loss of centre George Moala (through suspension) for the first three matches has not helped their cause either. Having to face Ireland, South Africa and Scotland in three consecutive weeks was always a big (read: impossible) ask.
Manu Samoa looked proficient against Chile, but I’m not sure any objective critic could go further than that in terms of plaudits for the performance. Argentina is next up (interestingly, after just a six-day turnaround) and the Pumas can’t possibly play worse than they did against a 14-man England in the opening round.
Lock Theo McFarland is a superstar in a pack that boasts plenty of power but is often disconnected in key collision areas. Like Tonga, Manu Samoa’s detail work needs to be addressed. They missed 24 tackles against the Chileans and scrummed at just 78%. There was also a paucity of post-contact metres from their running game.
I don’t think they can fix all of that in six days. And, just for the record, they also have a six-day turnaround before the Japan game, too. That schedule seems patently unfair.
Speaking of unfair, am I being so when I say Ireland and South Africa face off this week for the ‘prize’ of facing the All Blacks instead of France in a quarter-final?
Not at all. Look at the raw data: France are the No.2 team in the world playing in front of a hugely partisan crowd (they sing La Marseillaise at random moments at games not featuring Les Bleus for goodness’ sake). New Zealand are the No.4 team in the world who have lost two of their last three matches and currently appear a shadow even of their 2019 team.
They are struggling with discipline and consistency and the latter won’t be helped by Ethan de Groot’s two-match ban for a high tackle. Fortunately for them they’re likely to get Sam Cane, Shannon Frizell and Jordie Barrett back for the must-win Italy game on September 30.
So, yes, fair. And I have a sneaking suspicion that the All Blacks would prefer to face Ireland in that quarter rather than the Boks, who appear to have New Zealand’s number.
As the No.1 team in the world, the Irish are formidable but, as we all know, they have never won a World Cup knockout match. Speaking of formidable, I know you’re a fan of England’s pragmatic style. After watching them beat Japan quite comfortably in the end, how much of a threat are they in this tournament?
SS: Okay, I’m just going to go back for a second, Pat. I don’t think the Boks have New Zealand’s number at all. Yes, the Twickenham defeat was not pretty but I am convinced all the outside chatter about the potential for injuries seeped into the All Blacks side that day. Something sure did, because that was a strangely passive performance from a team that rolled over the top of the Boks at Ellis Park last year and beat them comfortably at home earlier this year.
I do agree that the All Blacks would rather face Ireland, and for the very reason you have mentioned above. Can you imagine the pressure on them at quarter-final time? History is a heavy burden.
But I digress. To England we go on the Sweet Chariot via Jerusalem! I’ve commentated both England matches so far in this World Cup and that team has a plan that works for them. That’s all that matters at this stage of the tournament.
It is incredible to me that they are facing such criticism at home for the way they are playing – essentially the same kick-and-stick rugby that we know is proving successful in this era of the game. The interesting thing for me, is I can see the potential in their game to change it up at some stage in this tournament a la South Africa in the final of the 2019 edition.
I spoke to one well-known former England player last night who is not as convinced as me. He said, “We might walk into a semifinal but by doing what? Life has to be more fun.”
I can tell you this, winning World Cup matches is surely more fun than pratfalling your way through the Six Nations as England did earlier this year. They are also now front-runners to top Pool D and set up a quarter-final with either Fiji or Australia. I think they would fancy their chances against either, the loss to Fiji at Twickenham notwithstanding.
Owen Farrell’s return will signal a slightly different approach, and that will be fascinating to watch, too.
I did call the last round ‘vanilla week’ but there are some fruity flavours to smack the lips on this round. Three matches in particular stand out for me: Wales v Australia, Samoa v Argentina and, of course, Ireland v South Africa. Get that well-polished crystal ball out Pat and give me your vision of the future…
PM: I think two out of those games are genuinely tough to predict. I’ll go Australia (just) as I think there may be a reaction to that Fiji defeat. As you say, Argentina were dreadful against England but should bounce back against Manu Samoa. Ireland v Boks is as tight as it gets. Ireland by a whisker.
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