Tonight's 1News Verian poll results — showing more Kiwis oppose than support National's foreign buyer plan — won't concern the party too much as the "prize" is "worth it", 1News political editor Jessica Mutch McKay has said.
The poll shows Winston Peters would be back in Parliament, with NZ First hitting the 5% threshold.
National is on 39%, Labour is on 28%, ACT is on 10% and the Green Party is also on 10%.
Translated to seats in Parliament, today's poll meant National could form a government with ACT. National's 49 seats and ACT's 13 seats come to a total of 62.
Mutch McKay said tonight: "This matters because National is very close to needing the support of New Zealand First.
"To govern, you need 61 seats.
"National and ACT on these latest numbers are on 62, so they're only two seats away from needing to rely on Winston Peters for help — and that's why we've seen Christopher Luxon choosing his words so carefully today and other times when we've asked him," she said.
"Refusing to rule out working with Winston Peters and refusing to block his path to power.
The latest 1News Verian poll showed 46% opposed the plan, while 39% supported it. (Source: 1News)
"That's what we saw Labour do two weeks ago, they said they just wouldn't work with him."
She also discussed National's tax policy, which has come under scrutiny from experts.
The latest 1News Verian poll shows more Kiwis oppose National's foreign buyers plan than support it.
"National says it's not worried because it thinks that the prize of having a tax cut outweighs the scepticism around this foreign buyers issue," Mutch McKay said. "You can see in those numbers, it's not hugely popular, but they think that it's worth it."
The poll asked 1002 eligible voters: "Do you support or oppose foreigners being allowed to buy existing homes in New Zealand that are worth more than $2 million?"
Of those polled, 39% supported National's plan while 46% opposed it. The rest didn't know or preferred not to say.
"One of the things for National though is that, for the last two weeks, there have been these questions, these concerns raised around its big flagship tax cut policy and that's not ideal for them," Mutch McKay said.
Asked if Labour would consider changing leaders given its polling numbers, Mutch McKay said it was highly unlikely.
"It's too late in the campaign," she said. "They don't have anyone waiting in the wings.
"One of the problems for Labour is that Chris Hipkins, out on the campaign trail, can be quite wooden when he doesn't know people.
"They're hoping that in these big set pieces he will do better, including the first Leaders' Debate," she added.
The first live Leaders' Debate will take place between Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon on September 19 at 7pm on TVNZ 1 and TVNZ+, moderated by Mutch McKay.
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