What are the five keys to victory for the All Blacks in tomorrow’s blockbuster World Cup opener? Scotty Stevenson takes a look.
Discipline
The man with the whistle will not be the match official the All Blacks are most wary of. Instead, that honour will belong to English TMO, Tom Foley, who was in the booth at Twickenham two weeks ago, and in Dunedin last year when the All Blacks were shown two yellow cards and a red card (sound familiar?) in their second Test loss to Ireland.
The All Blacks could not have hoped for a better on-field referee appointment. South African Jaco Peyper has an outstanding feel for the tempo of a match and an empathetic touch with the players. He has refereed the All Blacks on 17 prior occasions since 2012 (15 wins, one draw and one loss) and was a fixture on the Super Rugby circuit before the South African clubs upped sticks and headed to Europe.
Read more: Scotty Stevenson: Why the All Blacks have bet on experience
Familiarity, in this case, does not breed contempt and if the coaching staff have done their requisite work, they’ll know the “pictures to paint” in terms of what Peyper sees. With three natural openside flankers on the field in Sam Cane, Ardie Savea, and Dalton Papali’i - which has signalled a clear desire to contest the ball at the breakdown – the All Blacks will be buoyed by the knowledge that Peyper warns before he punishes.
Scotty Stevenson assesses the All Blacks team named for a huge World Cup opener against France on Saturday. (Source: Breakfast)
That said, the emphasis placed on replay refereeing means Foley will have plenty of opportunities to intervene. History tells us, those opportunities will be taken.
Width
The adage goes ‘you have to earn the right to go wide’, and the All Blacks will be focused on this ahead of the Stade de France showdown. The Australians did the New Zealand side a massive favour in their final warm-up match against the World Cup hosts by hinting at a frailty in France’s in-up defence.
New Zealand’s natural strength lies in its ability to manipulate defensive lines and find acres on the edges. Aaron Smith’s box kick game must be on point to allow an effective chase, but the midfield combination of Anton Lienert-Brown and Reiko Ioane has a huge part to play in releasing outside backs Will Jordan, Mark Telea, and Beauden Barrett.
With a pack overmatched in size, the All Blacks won’t exactly avoid contact, but they’ll be wise to look for quick ball from first strike (another factor in the selection of Papali’i) rather than relentless pick and drive, and hope Lienert-Brown in particular can dominate relative greenhorn Yoram Moefana to throw France’s defensive alignment.
Kick-pass ratio
Okay, maybe not a golden ratio, and it’s certainly a stat that the casual fan won’t be talking about, but France has a formula for success and that formula can be found in its kick-pass ratio. When France have been at their best this calendar year, their kick-pass ratio has largely sat between 1:4-1:5. So, for every kick they are passing the ball between four and five times.
Why does this matter? Because playing too much rugby against France is a disaster waiting to happen, and when teams have brought their own kick-pass ratios more in line with France’s sweet spot, they have been able to triumph. A case in point: Scotland delivered a kick-pass ratio of 1:6 in the first World Cup warm up match with France and triumphed 25-21. In the return fixture, they increased the ratio to 1:10.2, and lost.
The former All Blacks wing has lived in France for a few years now and he told 1 News' Kimberlee Downs expectation among home fans is huge. (Source: Breakfast)
Essentially the All Blacks need to trust their ability to win matches without the ball. Take the Ireland series last year. In the first Test Ireland’s kick-pass ratio was 1:10 while the All Blacks was 1:4.4. The All Blacks romped home 42-19. Ireland learned its lesson. In the subsequent two Tests, both won by Ireland, that ratio dropped to 1:7 and then to 1:3.9. New Zealand’s climbed to 1:10, and 1:7.9.
If all of that hasn’t given you a maths migraine, then you may just keep an eye on the kick-pass ratio this weekend. There is a formula, I promise.
Lineout
Scrummaging will get plenty of attention in this opening Test, but it is in the other vital set-piece that New Zealand will have to be at its best. The French have plenty of options in this department (the entire loose forward trio nudge the two-metre mark) and they will attempt to better their opponents.
New Zealand has a formidable success rate on offensive throws but got a little ahead of themselves defensively against the South Africans two weeks ago – and paid a heavy price. They can ill-afford to get their lineout maul defence wrong here.
Pressure will be on starting hooker Codie Taylor to throw well, and that will also apply to finisher Samisoni Taukei’aho. If New Zealand can deny the French good ball at lineout, they will go a long way to taking control of the match.
Own the Breakdown
The three sevens gambit has to pay off here. Captain Cane is a proven performer in ruck disruption and consecutive tackle efforts around the fringe. Papali’i will have to be just as formidable in this department to free Savea for his trademark running game. If the flankers can clear defensive bodies on attacking ball and secure possession from first strike, the All Blacks’ gameplan will come to life. If they can’t, it will be a long night at the office.
France will be quite happy to slow down New Zealand’s ruck ball, and that is no criticism. This is where tempo is delivered, and the French, for all their vaunted flair, will not want New Zealand to find its rhythm.
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