A lot has been made this week about the rest of the rugby year ahead of tonight's All Blacks-South Africa Test match at Mt Smart Stadium.
Will this showdown tonight mean much come Rugby World Cup time? Will this result be a "marker in the sand"? Will the Test match outcome give the winners a psychological edge for the next few months?
No, no and possibly.
Let's wind back the clock to 2018 and 2019. The Springboks beat the All Blacks in Wellington in 2018, then drew in the capital in 2019. Late that same year the All Blacks beat the Boks in their opening World Cup match, before, as we can all remember, South Africa went on to stun England in the final.
So much can happen in rugby between now and the Rugby World Cup playoffs in October, where the All Blacks are seeded to meet the Springboks either in a quarter-final or perhaps the final.
Injuries, change of players due to form, different conditions, different tactics, different referees [more on that soon] can all affect Test matches for both teams from here on in.
Yes, victory will give the winners tonight a mental edge but that's more to do with getting on a winning streak than getting inside each other's heads. The All Blacks would love to have that roll on before facing old mate Eddie Jones and the Wallabies in just a fortnight.
Also, this match alone is important to winning the Rugby Championship. Sure, it's second string in a Rugby World Cup year but still a Springboks Test match, which are always must-win, are stand alone features of any rugby year.
So to tonight and what's going to happen — I'd be shocked if there's more than 10 points in it either way. The Springboks are pretty much at full march and while the All Blacks are missing a few, they're still fielding a winning team.
The Boks are looking to use the ball more but you can bet your braai on them reverting to type, should the All Blacks defence prove too much to bash through or manipulate.
Discipline, as we saw in the recent Super Rugby Pacific season, will be vital. The referee tonight is Mattheiu Raynal, the French whistle blower who pulled that bizarre "time wasting" call out last year in Melbourne. He's capable of pulling some similar caper tonight before Englishman Wayne Barnes gets the plump MCG game in two weeks.
The All Blacks need to improve on last week. Full stop. The second half and lack of impact from the bench is a concern. You can rest assured there's a player or two on the All Blacks bench almost on their last chance tonight — let's not forget the World Cup squad will be confirmed in just three weeks.
In the backs, we need to see Richie Mo'unga again controlling a big Test match at this level, Rieko Ioane making key defensive and attacking decision at centre and Will Jordan and Mark Telea exposing gaps in behind or holes in the line. Conditions will be clear and crisp — a good chance for the All Blacks to move the ball.
The forwards were electric and at their rampaging best in Mendoza last weekend. They'll need to even up that effort tonight and for the match. The Boks will keep on coming with a 6-2 forward-dominated bench. Brace yourself for the fur to fly.
The lack of the Eden Park factor could also come into play. The positive is the fans are much closer tonight to the field at Mt Smart, so the atmosphere will lift the home team [although expect Browns Bay to empty out and the Bok flag to be out in numbers].
But it's still not Eden Park.
What other pro or national sports team can boast an unbeaten record at one single ground across nearly 30 years? That's the mystique or power of Eden Park. The Boks drew 18-all in 1994 after their re-introduction into Test rugby. That's as close as they've been ever since in Mt Eden.
The last factor for me, will either team show their full "World Cup" hand tonight when it comes to selections, tactics, changing tactics mid-game? No.
That's why there'll be a certain amount of shadow boxing tonight. We can't read too much into the result.
Although in saying that, as always, an All Blacks win for the rugby nation, is a non-negotiable.
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