OCR: 'We seem to be done with these ruthless hikes' - commentator

July 10, 2023

BusinessDesk investments editor Frances Cook spoke with Breakfast ahead of this week’s Reserve Bank OCR update. (Source: Breakfast)

The Reserve Bank's set to update the official cash rate (OCR) on Wednesday, following hike after hike since September 2021.

The last OCR update was on May 24, with the monetary policy committee increasing it from 5.25% to 5.5%.

The Reserve Bank has given strong indications that May's 0.25 basis point lift was the last hike this cycle, with the OCR forecast to stay at 5.5% until mid-next year.

BusinessDesk investments editor Frances Cook told Breakfast "we seem to be done with these ruthless hikes that we've seen coming through".

Should the Reserve Bank not lift the rate, it would be the first pause in 18 months, with rates up nearly 5% since 2021, the fastest increase in three decades.

Hikes to the OCR often result in banks increasing mortgage interest rates, but Cook said "banks have had enough certainty; they understand what's happening and a lot of those rate hikes have already been priced in".

"The next six months to maybe a year things will hold steady and then they might start to drop again.

"If you can hang in there for the next six months to a year, that's probably going to be the toughest time, then there's light at the end of the tunnel."

Despite the expectation that interest rates expected will go unchanged, Cook said the impact of interest rate changes are "often felt 18 months after they start, which is about now".

"It is like a slow moving freight train, it takes a while to get going... it also takes a while to stop."

Cook said banks are aware of the pain and are trying to work with people.

She said while increased mortgage rates have hit people hard, the pain hasn't been as bad as it could have been as unemployment has remained low.

"If people keep holding on to their jobs, it won't be felt as bad. If job losses start to roll through like they have in places like the tech sector, if that becomes wider, that's when we're really going to see some pain."

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