Analysis: This power move by Meka Whaitiri could hand the kingmaker sword to the Te Pāti Māori after the election. It has the potential to change the political picture post-election.
Meka Whaitiri has announced she’s ditching Labour and will stand for Te Pāti Māori in the large electorate of Ikaroa-Rāwhiti.
It is a seat she’s likely to win regardless of which party she stands for - she is the heavy favourite. It’s likely co-leaders Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Rawiri Waititi will win their seats too so it could swell their caucus.
Our 1News Kantar Public poll has put Te Pāti Māori in the kingmaker spot several times over the last year and this move makes that even more likely.
This is a massive kick in the guts for Labour. She’s a minister outside of Cabinet so one of their big players and she doesn’t want to be part of the team anymore. It’s messy and that’s always punished in the polls. She will be thinking she can do more for Māori with Te Pāti Māori and that’s a blow for the Māori caucus.
But they’re going to have to get over that because post-election Labour and Te Pāti Māori may be working together. So they’ll have to be careful with the way they handle it today.
She also didn’t have the respect for Chris Hipkins to give him a heads up. He’s been slapped with it while he’s in the UK for the King's coronation.
It leaves the Labour Party scrambling to find a new candidate. There’s still a while until Writ Day when all the names need to be with the Electoral Commission but it’s a pain for them. To be fair they’ve just opened nominations in Napier. They’ve had some practice and they’ll have some names in mind.
The minister responsible for the cyclone recovery was Stuart Nash – he’s gone, then it was Whaitiri and she’s gone too - it’s become a cursed position. Not helpful for those struggling to rebuild.
A by-election seems like a foolish move with the October 14 election looming but it’s more likely she’ll resign.
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