'2 tropical cyclones' potentially developing, path uncertain - MetService

MetService says two tropical lows have the potential to develop into tropical cyclones, however the risk of either directly impacting New Zealand is "relatively low".

The forecaster said in a tweet on Sunday that "there is a lot to happen before the tracks become certain" and that the forecast could change.

"Potentially two tropical cyclones developing this week," MetService said.

"At this stage, the risk of either directly impacting New Zealand is relatively low. However, there is a lot to happen before the tracks becomes certain, so things could change."

In its tropical cyclone bulletin, the forecaster said tropical low 08F had been analysed north of Fiji this morning.

"The system lies in a favourable environment, and the risk for it to develop into a tropical cyclone is expected to become high within the next 24 to 36 hours," the forecast read.

In the forecaster's outlook into next week, MetService said: "Tropical low 08F to the north of Fiji is expected to move west, towards Vanuatu during Monday and Tuesday, and the risk for it to become a tropical cyclone is expected to remain high.

"The system is expected to recurve south and remain close to Vanuatu during Tuesday and Wednesday, and is likely to reach severe tropical cyclone category - category three or above."

The second tropical low was analysed over the Coral Sea, but it remained "poorly organised" with a "very low" chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next three days, MetService said.

In its longer-term outlook, the forecaster said there would be a "moderate" chance for it to develop into a tropical cyclone next week.

"[The] tropical low over the Coral Sea is expected to move east, and the chance for it developing into a tropical cyclone is expected to become low on Wednesday, moderate on Thursday and high in the outlook period," it said.

"This system is expected to follow a similar track to tropical low 08F, and move across of close to Vanuatu late next week."

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MetService gives update on tropical lows with cyclone potential

"Tropical low 08F was analysed to the north of Fiji this morning," MetService said.

New Zealand

February 25, 2023

On Friday, MetService said the tropical lows are able to lose their strength and "dissipate" without causing impacts.

MetService will continue to track the systems over the coming days and give updates on their paths and whether or not they become a named cyclone.