MetService is forecasting Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will bring "very large waves" accompanied by a "storm surge".
In its latest update today, the forecaster said Gabrielle is expected to bring significant severe weather to northern and central New Zealand from late Sunday onwards.
"Easterly winds are expected to pick up about northern parts of the North Island during the weekend, and there is moderate confidence of severe gales for Northland on Sunday, along with low confidence of warning amounts of rain.
"Gabrielle is likely to approach the North Island on Monday, and possibly move onto northern parts of the Island on Tuesday."
After previously having confidence at "moderate levels", MetService has upgraded this to "high" when it comes to the chance for severe weather brought by Gabrielle.
"There is high confidence of warning amounts of rain for Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, northern and eastern Waikato, Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne from Monday to Tuesday.
"For southern Gisborne and Hawke's Bay there is low confidence of warning amounts of rain on Monday but high confidence on Tuesday. Low confidence of warning amounts rain for the remainder of Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui, Taupo and northern Taranaki on Tuesday.
"In addition, from Monday to Tuesday there is high confidence that severe gales from an easterly quarter will affect northern and central parts of the North Island, from Northland southwards to the central high country and Hawke's Bay, turning southwest about Northland and possibly Auckland on Tuesday."
Moderate confidence levels are still in place for bad weather when it comes to other centres.
"There is moderate confidence that warning amounts of rain will affect Wairarapa, the Tararua Range and eastern Marlborough on Tuesday. Also on Tuesday, there is high confidence that east to southeast winds will reach severe gale about southern parts of the North Island from Taranaki to Wellington and Wairarapa, also about Marlborough, Nelson and northern Buller.
"Very large waves and a storm surge are expected to affect northern and eastern coastlines from Northland to Gisborne from Sunday into Monday, spreading south to Marlborough on Tuesday."
According to Australia's Bureau of Meteorology, Gabrielle has now increased to a category 2 tropical cyclone, with sustained winds of 95km/h with wind gusts to 130km/h.
The weather system threatening the North Island has now officially formed into a named tropical cyclone. (Source: 1News)
In another update just after midday, MetService stated: "Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is expected to remain over waters to the south of New Caledonia Saturday as a category 3 cyclone, while moving towards the southeast.
"On Sunday the system may start to lose its tropical characteristics as it encounters cooler seas and strong winds aloft, but it is still expected to remain a deep low as it continues moving towards the upper North Island. Current outlooks suggest the system will lie close to the Far North on Monday. No other significant lows are expected."
A more concrete track for Gabrielle is expected to be locked in by Saturday at the latest, and possibly by the end of tomorrow.
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