MetService has released an updated bulletin on a tropical cyclone "likely" to impact the North Island early next week.
While the tropical low has yet to become a named cyclone, it's "organisation" has improved and MetService said there is a high risk it will become a tropical cyclone today.
"Indications are that it is likely to move southeastwards and lie northwest of the country over the weekend, approaching the north of the North Island on Monday," the forecaster said.
"Easterly winds are likely to pick up about northern parts of the North Island during the weekend, and there is low confidence of both warning amounts of rain and severe gales for Northland."
The weather is expected to be worse after the weekend as the system tracks southeastwards.
"On Monday, there is moderate confidence of warning amounts of rain for Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula and Gisborne. There is low confidence of warning amounts of rain for Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Hawke's Bay. There is moderate confidence of severe east to southeast gales for Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Taupo.
"Furthermore, large waves are likely to affect northern and eastern coastlines from Northland to Gisborne from Sunday into Monday."
1News meteorologist Dan Corbett explains the mechanics behind a tropical cyclone. (Source: 1News)
MetService also explained what its confidence levels equate to.
Low confidence: A 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence: A 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
High confidence: A 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
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