Poll results show upcoming election will be 'really close'

This year's election is going to be "really close", according to 1News Political Editor Jessica Mutch McKay.

According to the latest 1News Kantar Public Poll Hipkins has attracted a net approval rating of 36 points, while Christopher Luxon trails on nine points.

The poll has also shown a surge of support for Labour, with the party gaining five percentage points on its last poll result. It now sits at 38%, which translates to 49 seats if Rawiri Waititi holds Waiariki. That is Labour's best result since January 2022.

It’s still not enough to govern alone, however, and Hipkins and Luxon were neck-and-neck on preferred prime minister stakes, with Hipkins on 23% and Luxon on 22%. The poll was run from January 25 to 29 and surveyed 1008 eligible voters.

National is at 37%, down one percentage point.

Speaking to Breakfast this morning, Mutch McKay said the election is going to be "really exciting" because of how close it's going to be.

"But I think we're going to see things change around, obviously Chris Hipkins has only been in the job six days, this is the first impression that voters are getting of him, whether he'll be able to extend this honeymoon or not, we'll have to see.

"Yes, it's a good solid start for him but he's now got to make some tough decisions and that's when he's really going to be tested so I think it is important to look at this as first impressions but is he going to be chuffed by these results, you can bet you."

She said going into the election there are a couple of possible outcomes, one being a hung parliament and the other a slim majority for one of the parties.

Mutch McKay said a prime minister never wants an event like the Auckland floods to happen but it shows Hipkins in a leadership role.

"We saw him out and about, he was on the ground on the Saturday and helping people out."

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She says Hipkins now has a few big decisions to make which will test him as prime minister.

The last 1News Kantar Public Poll in December last year had National on 38%, Labour on 33%, Act on 11% and the Green Party on 9%.