Waiting in the wings: Who could replace Ardern?

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is stepping down, so who could replace her? 1News Digital Political Reporter Felix Desmarais took a look at Labour's potential candidates.

While it might be natural to assume a deputy would be a frontrunner, finance minister and deputy prime minister Grant Robertson has already ruled out putting his hand up for the job again.

Having run for the leadership of the Labour Party - and failing - for a second time in 2014, Robertson ruled out another bid. On Thursday, he said he would not revise that position.

Robertson will likely be keen on retaining his power over the purse strings under the next prime minister.

Davis - the Te Tai Tokerau MP, and Minister for Children and Corrections, also ruled himself out on Thursday.

Depending on internal politics and loyalties, he may stay on as deputy Labour leader as a largely inoffensive internal choice - but the role is often a prize for whoever backs the successful candidate.

Attorney-general and noted tax boffin David Parker was interim Labour Party leader for barely three months in 2014, during its oft-forgot turbulent years in the wilderness.

He's notable as one of the three Davids of the period: David Cunliffe and David Shearer being the other two. While he's the last one standing in politics of the three, likely only the most politically literate would know the difference between them.

It would be a stretch to think Parker would stand, even more of a stretch to think he would be chosen by the Labour caucus and probably no amount of yoga would produce enough of a stretch to see him elected Prime Minister in October.

Andrew Little will be best known by history as the man who stepped aside to allow Ardern's so-called "stardust" (as Bill English called it) to dramatically turn around Labour's fortunes in the 2017 election campaign. It's a little unfortunate since Little appears to be relatively hard-working and principled.

While he's attracted the nickname "Angry Andy", the nickname may be unfair. It's likely derived from his inability, on occasion, to maintain the unflappable poker face so needed by a leader. Maintaining the poker face is no easy task - even Ardern's had started to slip in the latter parts of 2022, mostly notably revealed in her "arrogant prick" hot mic moment.

When not under the glare of camera lights, Little can be genial and warm. But he's struggled to show it to the public and doesn't appear to know how. It's not unlike Simon Bridges, who could be warm and funny when not under the pressure that comes with being the Leader of the Opposition.

Little's given the leadership a spin before, he probably won't again, unless there's no one else and his colleagues beg him to step back up.

Woods has not ruled herself out of the race.

The MP, who is from Christchurch, has been a steady and loyal force at Ardern's side, and appears gaffe-proof. She was brought in as Mrs Fix-It after Phil Twyford's fumbling of the housing portfolio. And - largely - she's done an OK job. Not spectacular, but OK.

She hasn't fixed the housing crisis, but that was never going to be easy, and the emergency housing situation in Rotorua in particular is a clear policy failure. But she hasn't bottled the portfolio wholesale.

Her heart also seems genuinely in the right place, though she sometimes comes across as too on-message, rather than genuine and natural.

The problem for Woods is housing is a dog of a job. The worst job in politics is Leader of the Opposition, so it's said, but allow me a bid for Housing Minister. It's a hard role to win in.

That baggage is likely too heavy for Woods to trudge up the nine floors of the Beehive with.

Transport Minister Michael Wood is a likeable character, quite level and extremely popular with the left of Labour and the Greens. And that's just it - he does not have broad base appeal.

He is likely simply too old school unionist Labour, not enough vanilla centre for the average voter.

Being "too Labour" would be a compliment to Wood, but it could be prohibitive to bringing the party back to power in October. It would be a hard sell for the caucus, and he may be better used as a competent minister, should Labour be re-elected.

Wood has not ruled himself out.

Allan would be a brave choice, but her candidacy is not entirely out of the realm of possibility.

Allan impressed many with her calm control of the threat of tsunami in March 2021. It was later revealed it was the same day she had a medical diagnosis of cervical cancer, which she later underwent treatment for - this earned her extra admiration for her grit.

Identity shouldn't play into politics, but the reality is it can. While some may be excited and inspired by a gay Māori woman as Prime Minister, it could clash with the social conservatism of Labour's union base. It is something the party would have to, unfortunately, consider.

By all accounts, Allan is a well-liked figure in Wellington and in her East Coast electorate. And if there is something Kiwis love about their politicians, it's whether or not the politician feels like someone they could have a beer with.

John Key was one of those politicians, and that's the sense Allan manages to convey to people, too.

Allan has long been tipped as a talent in the party and future leader. It's likely the party would want to keep her clean until her time comes.

If Labour is looking to recapture the "stardust" of the 2017 election, there may well be a bottle of Kirimania up the back of the top shelf of the pantry.

The major question, however, is whether now is the time to use it. It could be an inspired move, akin to bringing in Ardern in the last throes of the 2017 election. But that's with the power of hindsight, knowing that paid off for Labour that time.

Labour won't be betting on lightening striking twice, but with the polls looking the way they are, and economic forecasts grim, the party may need all the sparkle it can muster. Allan may be it.

When the will-she, won't-she discussion about Ardern's resignation sparked up late last year, Hipkins' name was probably the most bandied about as a likely successor.

Hipkins has not ruled himself out of the race.

Hipkins makes a lot of sense. He's an experienced minister, and while his tenureship as Covid-19 Response Minister - including an arduous Auckland lockdown he apologised for - has earned him some baggage, he is likely the most palatable contender.

Those opposed to the vaccine mandates or more broadly against Labour's management of the pandemic would not be lost votes, because Labour would not have had them anyway.

He's also shown he can relax in the limelight, and was willing to have a giggle at his own expense over his "spread your legs" line in a Covid-19 press conference.

As to whether he could secure a victory for Labour on October 14 - that will be up to the voters.