A new eruption warning system has been developed for Whakaari/White Island, with researchers hopeful it can assist tourism operators in the future.
The new system detects patterns in seismic data and could provide warnings hours or days before an eruption occurs.
Lead researcher David Dempsey, a senior lecturer at the University of Canterbury, said: "We hope that this can help volcanologists as they grapple with the tricky job of determining the odds of an eruption."
The system has been tested operationally over the past two years and provides real-time monitoring. Dempsey believes it could improve the safety of tourist access.
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"If an eruption is more likely, then access can be restricted," he said. "Our system provides information for decision-makers as they weigh those choices.
"It is also fast, always watching, and has perfect memory of the past, which makes it a great assistant for human operators."
The research team say the new system could anticipate six out of seven eruptions.
When the system's forecasting was applied retrospectively to the 48 hours before the volcano's eruption in December 2019, it estimated the odds of an eruption were 400 times higher than normal.
"Alongside our operational tests, these retrospective analyses - replaying a model on the past - are the best way to understand how systems like these might work in future eruptions," Dempsey said.
However, the system has been "on hiatus" since monitoring equipment on Whakaari/White Island failed at the beginning of August.
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Since the December 2019 eruption, the on-island network has not been serviced and power supplies, sensors and cameras have degraded or failed over time.
When Whakaari/White Island erupted on December 9, 2019, twenty-two people were killed and a further 25 injured, many with third-degree burns.
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