Hospitalisations from the Omicron outbreak in New Zealand may peak at about 1000, according to a leading Covid-19 modeller.
Te Pūnaha Matatini’s Michael Plank told Breakfast that Aotearoa could reach that figure in about three weeks’ time, with hospitalisation numbers doubling about every five days.
He said there were signs it was slowing, and he was hopeful that the trend would continue.
Plank said the country’s health system could probably cope with that level of demand for a short time. But, if it was extended, it would put it under “unprecedented strain”.
It comes as 19,566 Covid-19 community cases were detected on Tuesday.
Plank said it was difficult to interpret what case numbers meant, especially with the recent switch to using rapid antigen tests (RAT) to test for the virus.
On top of that, 32,000 PCR Covid-19 tests had been delayed as Omicron’s rapid spread overwhelmed labs.
“It’s not necessarily indicative of a big jump in actual infections,” Plank said of Tuesday’s case numbers.
As for how many people were actually infected with the virus in the community, he said it was increasingly challenging to get an accurate picture.
Based on international evidence, he guessed that about one in two or three people who were infected with Covid-19 would go on to get a test.
Plank added that, because case numbers were so erratic, it was also nearly impossible to predict when the peak of the Omicron outbreak would be.
“I don’t think we’re there yet [at the peak of the Omicron outbreak]. We’re probably still a week or two away from a peak.
“That said, the situation is different in different parts of the country. Auckland is ahead of the curve, so it’s possible we’ll see cases peak in Auckland a little sooner than that.”
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