Exclusive polling analysis by Colmar Brunton for Q+A with Jack Tame has revealed the shaky foundations underneath the politically dominant Labour Government.
After one out of every two voters chose Labour in the 2020 election, only 70% of those voters say they’d still pick the party if the election was held tomorrow.
Moreover, just 3.5% of Labour 2020 voters would now cast their vote for the Greens, who have ministerial positions in the current government. 10% of Labour’s 2020 voters would now choose National, and 5% would choose Act.
It isn’t all good news for the main party of opposition. 16% of National’s 2020 voters would now vote for Act – though the two parties have formed coalition governments in the past.
Voters are also much more likely to be disappointed than pleasantly surprised by Labour’s performance in government since the election.
When asked how they rate Labour’s performance, just 14% of respondents said it has exceeded their expectations. In contrast, 41% of respondents said Labour’s performance has been in line with expectations, and 41% said Labour’s performance has been worse than expected.
That includes 22% of Labour’s 2020 voters, who said Labour’s performance has been worse than expected.
The polling follows Monday’s release of 1News-Colmar Brunton polling data of party vote intentions and preferred prime minister.
Labour continues to be the largest single party, and could still reach a majority of parliament through an alliance with the Greens. However National and Act are slowly closing the gap.