Goodbye lockdown; hello lockdown.
Like it or not - and the indications are that ever increasing numbers of New Zealanders are liking it less and less - that is simply the way it has to be.
If Covid-19 is to be eliminated, rather than merely contained, then strict curbs on people's social interaction and movements must continue to be enforced.
Many people don't get it, however.
The Prime Minister's flagging on Thursday of the very slight relaxation of the very strict restraints on face-to-face contact which will apply after the country drops from Alert Level 4 to Alert Level 3 would thus have come as a rude shock for thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders.
Seven Sharp looks at the supply chain that brings that produce to New Zealand shelves. (Source: Other)
While the new rules will permit an expansion in the number of people who can be included in one's "bubble", that change is so limited that it really amounts to virtually no change.
The basic tenet underlying the rules which have been in force since the country was placed under the strictures of Alert Level 4 some three weeks ago remains unchanged: stay home and otherwise minimise contact with those outside your bubble.
A large chunk of the citizenry had clearly convinced themselves that the stint at Alert Level 4 was a temporary aberration; that once that period had ended, life would carry on much as it always has.
That not a few people have a poor comprehension or even knowledge for that matter of the current blanket bans on most activities outside the home does not bode well for the pending switch to Alert Level 3.
At that level, many of those bans are retained. But many bans in that category will be riddled with exemptions under the new rules.
The Finance Minister said today's announcement of two more deaths is a grim reminder of why this lockdown is so important. (Source: Other)
That is going to make it far more difficult for the police to enforce those rules. It will largely be up to individuals to self-police their behaviour and actions.
The great majority will conform with that requirement. But a small minority won't.
Either deliberately or accidentally, they will buck the system.
Both explaining and disseminating information about the new rules is going to be a communications nightmare.
It is a recipe for confusion. At worst, Alert Level 3 might yet prove to be a blueprint for unmitigated disaster.
Production has halved for some companies, 1 NEWS’ Kaitlin Ruddock reports. (Source: Other)
If the public regards the new rules as offering license to ignore them and there is a consequent spike back upwards in both those infected with coronavirus or contagion-related deaths, then the Cabinet might have to revert to the settings applicable under Alert Level 4.
The consequent reimposition of the toughest of controls would be the real test of the public's tolerance of life under full lockdown.
While the lockdown has resulted in the country being fragmented into some 1.5 million-plus "bubbles" - if you take the number of households in New Zealand as a rough guide - the isolation has been soothed by a collective upwelling of patriotism. That is best illustrated by major corporates which have shamelessly piggybacked on this nationalistic sentiment with an advertising blitz to promote their brands as embodying what being a New Zealander is all about even though many enterprises indulging in this self-serving practice are foreign-owned.
Even food producers supplying our market are among them, 1 NEWS’ Kristin Hall reports. (Source: Other)
Being in lockdown has been something of a novelty. It has been a diversion from mundanity of everyday life - at least for those whose jobs or businesses do not hang in the balance.
It is a novelty of which many are fast tiring, however. It will tire even quicker should Monday's Cabinet meeting determines the risks of moving to Alert Level 3 are too high.
Yet delaying such a shift would be just as unpalatable, if not more so.
That would throttle much of what little life is still left in New Zealand's economy.
The various post-Covid-19 economic "scenarios" offered up by the Treasury's modelling indicate that if the country was to keep oscillating between Alert Levels 4 and 3 over the next 12 months then unemployment could top 17 per cent. That would see around half a million people out of work.
Term two will begin with online classes soon with Nigel Latta providing some tips for stressed parents. (Source: Other)
That is probably the worst case scenario. The Treasury's assessment is that the Government's injection of a likely further $20 billion into the economy to save existing jobs means that won't happen.
Grant Robertson has instead focused on scenarios which see unemployment kept below 10 per cent. The Finance Minister is enough of a realist to know he will have his work cut out to stay within that unofficial target.
It is understandable why Mr Robertson prefers not to dwell on worst-case scenarios. It would be useful, however, were the wider public to pay some attention to the grim picture painted by the Treasury, however.
For some it has been a busier time than ever. (Source: Other)
There is a disturbing unwillingness abroad to take cognisance of just how poisonous is the economic pickle into which the country now finds itself plunged.
This reluctance to confront the truth that things economic will never return to the comforting normality which prevailed prior to the arrival of Covid-19 on New Zealand's shores amounts to delusion piled on denial.
That New Zealand has (so far) kept the number of coronavirus-linked mortalities to just 11 plus the albeit guarded willingness of officialdom to acknowledge the numbers infected with coronavirus has peaked has risked breeding an unwelcome overconfidence that the first battle has been won.
Sir David Skegg doesn't believe health authorities have done the necessary work towards an informed decision. (Source: Other)
Such complacency is to ignore not only the sheer unpredictability of the virus. It is also a failure to take into account the evil genius of this most pernicious of pathogens.
In the space of just a few weeks, the microbe has closed down previously open borders between countries. The shutters have come down on world trade. The world's airlines are grounded. The container shipping companies have cancelled up to 35 per cent of voyages scheduled on major routes.
It is all eerily reminiscent of the 1920s. Back then it was protectionism which slashed world trade. The result was the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Fast forward a century and the cause of the current melting away of world trade might be very different but the result is looking like being just as dreadful.
Professor Shaun Hendy is working to advise the Government on how it should move during the pandemic. (Source: Other)
That is appalling news for a nation like New Zealand which relies on trade to maintain the standard of living of its inhabitants.
Worse may be yet to come. It is only a matter of time before the protectionist instincts of the many populist politicians in power across the globe come to the fore.
The blockage in world trade will see them raising barriers to free trade in order to sell goods produced in their country on their domestic market.
That is not an option available to New Zealand. That is one reason why the Government has made reviving the economy an absolute priority alongside devoting as many resources as possible to elimination of the coronavirus.
New units have been set up as part of the force's Covid-19 response. (Source: Other)
Relaxing or even removing the current restrictions on freedom of association and freedom of travel come a very long way behind -- and for one very simple reason.
Kickstarting the economy back into life carries the increased risk of the virus taking greater hold.
The principal difference between Alert Levels 3 and a 4 is the emphasis in the former regime to getting people who cannot work from home returning to their workplace without jeopardising the progress made in stemming the number of Covid-19 infections.
It all adds up to a massive gamble on Mr Robertson's and Jacinda Ardern's part.
There have been 109 people prosecuted for flouting Level 4 lockdown rules. (Source: Other)
It is a gamble that could not be ducked, however.
Along with Robertson, the Prime Minister has been at pains to stress that the scene-setting of last week in readiness for Alert Level 3 does not necessarily mean the switch from the current higher alert level will actually happen.
But something has to give. The public's expectation of a switch is now such that not to follow through after all the advance notice would risk being viewed as a failure of both nerve and will.
Taking that into account, it is likely the Cabinet will OK a switch at least in principle. It may delay the date that the switch will take effect by a week or so. It may even impose provisos and conditions which must be satisfied before the switch can happen.
Doing nothing is not an option. Since the advent of the coronavirus crisis, accusations of doing nothing has not been a charge that can be laid at Ms Ardern's door, however.
Whatever emerges from this week's Cabinet meeting, her administration's sense of purpose is one thing that is most assuredly not going to change.
Amidst a sea of uncertainty, that is one certainty - and one for which the nation will be grateful.
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