GeoNet estimates there is a two to 14 per cent chance of a magnitude seven or above earthquake occurring within the next year in central New Zealand.
The "very unlikely" estimate comes from an updated forecast released by GeoNet, which aims to inform residents for their own peace of mind.
An improved understanding of how larger earthquakes cluster in time and space, seismologists can now produce one-year and 10-year earthquake forecasts that will include probabilities of large events.
Along with more knowledge about clustering, forecasting is also being helped by research into slow slip events, with that information being brought into the forecast models.
GeoNet said their best estimate is a six per cent chance, or very unlikely chance. This has decreased over the last year, but is reportedly still a higher chance than before the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake.
The chances of earthquakes are calculated from a computer model used by GeoNet, there is no human input or scientific expertise involved.
GeoNet said the numbers for the estimates come after scientists from Japan, Taiwan and the USA met with New Zealand scientists to look at the chance of a large earthquake occurring in central New Zealand.
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