Some electorates lean a long way left or right – see where yours sits

Figures from more than 183,000 Kiwis who have completed the Vote Compass online tool has found stark differences in the political leaning of different parts of the country.

From Waikato on the right to Wellington Bays on the left, the general electorate seats have a wide variation, while all the Māori electorates sit far out to the left.

The findings offer a different picture of the election from party polling by looking at where voters stand on policy.

Find out where you stand on party policies with Vote Compass

Vote Compass researchers analysed the answers of 183,349 Kiwis between October 3 and 19.

Using responses to the tool’s 30 policy statements, they calculated a combined left–right score and compared electorates.

University of Auckland political scientist Danny Osborne said policy views were only one influence on how people voted.

“Some of it has to do with political leader personalities and the attraction to particular candidates.”

Familiarity with a local MP could also outweigh disagreements over policy, he said.

In the general electorates, Waikato ranks furthest right, followed by Port Waikato and Whangaparāoa. Mt Maunganui and Taupō complete the top five.

Southland, in sixth place overall, is the most right-leaning South Island electorate.

At the left end of the rankings, Wellington Bays and Wellington North are followed by Dunedin, Mt Albert and Māngere.

Tāmaki Makaurau is the most left-leaning electorate overall, followed by Te Tai Tonga and Hauraki-Waikato.

The seven Māori electorates occupy the seven most left-leaning positions:

Epsom and Tāmaki provide an illustration of why an electorate’s political identity can be more complicated than its party label.

Both elected ACT MPs in 2023. But neither is among the ten most right-leaning electorates on Vote Compass’ combined measure.

Tāmaki ranks 30th from the right, while Epsom ranks 40th.

The analysis also looks separately at economic views and social views. On those measures, both electorates sit further towards the right-hand end economically than towards the conservative end socially.

That distinction matters: views about tax, government spending and private enterprise do not necessarily line up neatly with someone’s views on social issues.

Auckland Central also sits further right on the combined measure than several other Auckland general electorates, including Mt Albert, Māngere, Glendene, Ōtāhuhu and Henderson.

Osborne pointed to the local visibility of ACT leader David Seymour and Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick as examples of the personal connections candidates can build.

“David Seymour is constantly seen in Epsom. He’s a mainstay there. Likewise, Chlöe is a mainstay in Auckland Central.”

Those relationships help explain why an electorate’s policy profile does not necessarily match the party of its elected MP.

Osborne said international research suggested the relationship worked both ways: people could be drawn to communities that suited their preferences, while their surroundings could influence them after they arrived.

Some were attracted to cities for their cultural experiences, while others preferred rural living and a more traditional lifestyle.

“Once you get there, the socialisation effect starts to tick in and you see your friends, family, neighbours, etcetera, talking about particular political parties and then you might start leaning that way yourself.”

Behind the rankings are voters with different expectations of government and some familiar worries about making their money stretch.

In Waikato, dairy farmer Chris Woolerton backs the current government and wants more freedom to get on with his work.

Asked how he was feeling about the election, his answer was immediate: “Yeah, to be honest, real nervous.”

For Woolerton, rules and regulations can limit his ability to improve the farm.

“We’re actually limited and we’re not able to be flexible to make the place better.”

In Wellington Bays, youth worker Lizzie Pringle wants more government support, particularly for housing.

“I think a house is a pretty fundamental need for everybody. So that’s my big priority at the moment, housing.”

Osborne said beliefs about the role of government helped explain why people facing similar financial pressures preferred different solutions.

Supporters of a free-market approach could see a different way forward from those who favoured greater government intervention.

“Both the left and right are finding the current economic situation challenging, but preferring very different solutions.”

For another Wellington Bays voter, the priority was cheaper groceries.

“Living is very expensive,” she said.

Back in Waikato, agricultural contractor Aaron Wesford, 24, is concerned about overseas conflict and its impact on fuel prices and inflation.

He supports the current government and has recently bought his first home bringing the pressure on household budgets into sharper focus.

“Actually experiencing that firsthand is ... quite, I suppose, confronting really.”

The young Wellington students 1News spoke to lean left politically and say buying a home remains out of reach. Even living with parents and working alongside their studies, money feels tight.

“I live with my parents and I’m a fulltime student and I work part-time and I still don’t make enough money to do the things that I want to do. I think honestly we all have the same wants, but we just approach it very differently,” one student said.

The historical comparison sees Tāmaki Makaurau switch places with Te Tai Tonga, which was furthest left in 2023.

Hauraki-Waikato records the largest leftward change in its relative score between 2023 and 2026. East Cape records the largest rightward change.

Among general electorates, Glendene has the largest relative move left, followed by Hutt South.

However, those changes need context. New electorate boundaries apply in 2026. For electorates with changed boundaries, researchers reconstructed historical values using the published scores of their predecessor electorates, weighted by the share of voters each contributed.

Find out where you stand on party policies with Vote Compass

Methodology

Results are based on 183,349 respondents to Vote Compass between October 3 and 19, 2026. Data were weighted to align the sample characteristics with those of the New Zealand adult population on the following characteristics: sex, age, ethnicity, education, and past voting record. A margin of error does not apply to non-probability samples.

A statistical scaling model (factor analysis) was used to translate answers to the 30 Vote Compass policy statements into a single left-right score. The two-dimensional chart uses the economic and social positions shown on the Vote Compass results page. Positions are relative to other electorates.

The 2026 election uses new electorate boundaries. The 2020 and 2023 values are those published in 2023; for electorates whose boundaries changed, they are the average of the published values of the former electorates, weighted by the share of the new electorate’s voters each contributes.