The party leaders chasing our votes are struggling to cut through, with new data on the public's rating of them showing no one reaches a five out of ten.
The next prime minister will almost certainly be either National's Christopher Luxon or Labour's Chris Hipkins, but both of them were stuck on just 20% in the latest 1News Verian poll preferred prime minister stakes.
And now Vote Compass results on their favourability ratings shows Hipkins, although top among the nine leaders assessed, is on just 4.3. Luxon comes in fifth on 3.6.
Hipkins is well behind his Labour predecessor Jacinda Ardern's equivalent rating at her peak, and Luxon is behind Judith Collins who was on 3.7 before crashing to a landslide defeat as National leader in the 2020 election.
The new findings draw on 136,713 people who participated in 1News Vote Compass between October 4 and 11. They were asked how favourable their opinion of each leader was, on a scale from zero to ten.
After Hipkins come Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick on 4.0 and Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong on 3.8, followed by NZ First leader Winston Peters on 3.7.
ACT leader David Seymour follows on 3.4 and Green co-leader Marama Davidson is on 3.3. Te Pāti Māori’s co-leaders have the lowest overall ratings, with Debbie Ngarewa-Packer on 2.1 and Rawiri Waititi on 1.9.
Where do you stand? Compare your policy views with the parties at 1News.co.nz/VoteCompass
Who appeals to undecided voters?
Among participants still undecided about their party vote, Hipkins remains first on 4.3.
Wong moves into second on 4.0, ahead of Swarbrick on 3.8. Peters scores 3.3 and Luxon 3.0.
However, about a third of undecided participants (34%) answered “don’t know” when asked to rate Wong. Her average reflects only those who provided a score.
Across all participants, Wong also has the highest “don’t know” share of the nine leaders, at about 16%.
That means her relatively high position sits alongside a substantial group who did not express a view.
Young and older voters differ
Swarbrick has the highest average rating among participants aged 18–29, at 5.2.
Hipkins follows on 4.8 and Wong on 4.5. Luxon scores 2.9 among this group.
For participants aged 65 and over, Peters leads on 4.6, followed by Luxon on 4.4 and Seymour on 4.3.
There is also a notable difference between men’s and women’s assessments of the two major-party leaders.
Women rate Hipkins at 4.6 and Luxon at 3.2. Among men, their averages are much closer: Hipkins scores 3.9 and Luxon is in the lead on 4.0.
As expected, the leaders get much stronger assessments within their own voter bases.
Participants intending to vote Labour give Hipkins an average of 7.3. National supporters rate Luxon at 6.9.
Green supporters give Swarbrick 8.5 and Davidson 7.1, while ACT supporters rate Seymour at 7.9.
Peters scores 7.8 among NZ First supporters, and Wong receives 7.4 from those intending to vote Opportunity.
How do the scores compare with previous elections?
Both major-party leaders have lower numerical scores than in the supplied 2023 comparison, while Peters has a higher one.
It's important to note, however, that the question has been re-framed over time. In previous elections, participants were asked, “How likeable do you find [Leader]?” This year, the question is, “How favourable is your opinion of [Leader]?” Both use a scale from zero to ten.
Hipkins received a likeability score of 4.9 in 2023, compared with his favourability score of 4.3 this year. Luxon’s figures are 3.8 and 3.6 respectively.
Peters scores 3.7 this year, compared with 2.9 on the earlier likeability measure.
Leaders' 2023 likeability vs 2026 favourability
Chris Hipkins - 4.9 vs 4.3
Christopher Luxon - 3.8 vs 3.6
Winston Peters - 2.9 vs 3.7
David Seymour - 3.6 vs 3.4
Marama Davidson - 3.2 vs 3.3
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer - 2.7 vs 2.1
Rawiri Waititi - 2.5 vs 1.9
Looking further back, the historical tables supplied for this analysis put Jacinda Ardern’s 2020 likeability score at 6.9.
Then-National leader Judith Collins scored 3.7 - more than Luxon’s current 3.6.
Ardern’s rating stands well above the scores recorded for either of today’s major-party leaders, although the different question wording remains a qualification to that comparison.
Results are based on 136,713 respondents to Vote Compass between October 4 and 11, 2026. Data were weighted to align the sample characteristics with those of the New Zealand adult population on the following characteristics: sex, age, ethnicity, education, and past voting record. A margin of error does not apply to non-probability samples. The modeled error estimate for an average rating in the overall sample is ±0.02 points on the 0–10 scale, 19 times out of 20. Results based on subsamples of the data should be expected to contain greater error.
SHARE ME