The Bledisloe Cup is secure for another year after the All Blacks splattered the Australian defence across Eden Park like a GPS Jackson Pollock on Saturday, but the final Southern Hemisphere test of the season this weekend in Sydney has presented a conundrum for fans and pundits alike.
Do the selectors reward performance and promote consistency, or roll the dice to further examine all the options?
Injuries forced the selectors’ hands last week when Richie Mo’unga joined Ruben Love on the invalid list, opening the door for a Damian McKenzie positional switch and a first test start of the season for 150-match veteran Beauden Barrett. The absence of Ardie Savea and Luke Jacobsen gave Wallace Sititi and Peter Lakai opportunities, while the return of Scott Barrett and Shannon Frizell squeezed out the likes of Fabian Holland and Ethan Blackadder. Those circumstances and subsequent decisions point to a pool of talent that runs very deep indeed.
This season has shaped as a genuine endurance event, featuring four distinct All Blacks 'blocks' – the July series, the South African tour, the Bledisloe series, and the upcoming northern tour – on top of a Super Rugby campaign that for many in the national squad began in November last year. It was destined to come at a cost, such is the attritional nature of contact sport, but it has also provided the All Blacks with their best depth generator in many years.
The question is, how do the selectors best use that as a recipe for success? The answer: refine the ingredients and cook on low and slow.
It didn’t take long for some to move on from the star turn of McKenzie at Eden Park and call for the elevation of uncapped first five Josh Jacomb to debut on Saturday. It is an interesting proposition; one based more on false logic and curiosity rather than an understanding of how this team is building behind the scenes. "We need to see how these players handle Test pressure" is not a valid argument when the All Blacks have a 5-3 record this season. Turning for the north 5-4 would do nothing to enhance the collective esteem.
That's not to say fresh faces couldn’t do the job. Jacomb proved worthy of his All Blacks call up, showcasing his proficiency in South Africa as a midweek servant, as did the likes of Timoci Tavatavanawai, another name many fans demand to see on this week’s team sheet. It might well happen, but it would be at odds with what we have seen from this team so far in 2026.
The issue with thinking a runaway win at Eden Park (the 24th straight against Australia at the ground) gives the team freedom to make untold changes is that it flies in the face of what has become a clear player development strategy: know your place in the pecking order, lean on those in front of you to get better, stay aware at all times of your areas of focus, and hone the skills required to play this style of rugby.
That’s not a philosophy plucked from thin air. In a story run on major media sites this week, Barrett’s key comment from his standup was buried so deep in the ensuing articles, it’s no wonder it received very little oxygen. Every headline contained the same quote: “It challenged me mentally”, but the more important quote was this: “The good thing is we are both honest with each other, we know where we stand, and there are no mixed messages.”
That’s the most capped player in the side was making it clear Dave Rennie’s philosophy has complete buy-in from the team. That’s the crucial bit. And there’s more: “It was clear that I wasn’t up in the pecking order, so I had to really work hard for it or wait for my opportunity.”
In two brief statements, Barrett managed to sum up how Rennie operates, how the selectors make their decisions, and how the team is building towards a World Cup through its patient and consistent work, away from the stadium as much as within it.
Wholesale changes for the hell of it do not fit that kind of narrative.
Which is why fans who are expecting the All Blacks to throw out the proverbial baby this weekend may be disappointed. This is not the time for unadulterated experimentation; it is an opportunity to consolidate gameplan execution.
There will be at least one change to the starting lineup, with Leroy Carter’s ankle injury preventing him from travelling to Sydney. That opens up a spot on the left wing, a job that could be filled by Josh Moorby or Emoni Narawa. There may also be an inclination to elevate Shannon Frizell to start on the blindside as he continues to build his minutes. That would be tough on Tupou Vaa’i, who had a strong showing in Auckland, but given his proven utility value, it’s hard to see him outside the 23. Elsewhere, there remains good competition at lock. Holland could still be a chance to return after his omission last week.
The bench is where the most changes are likely. At least two of those will be injury-forced – Anton Segner and Asafo Aumua both remained in New Zealand – and if Moorby and Frizell are elevated, two more swaps will have to be made. There is also likely to be a strategic revision of the bench make up. Last week the All Blacks picked two specialist loose forwards (Frizell and Segner) but may look to expand their lineout options after another scrappy effort in that area of the game in Auckland.
The Australian side will be better for the Eden Park annihilation and will not be a team the All Blacks will take lightly in Sydney. They will bring more line speed and defensive pressure and will also be more aware of the visitors' double man kick chase tactic. The All Blacks will be desperate to double down on the elements of their game that worked well in Auckland, and that’s why continuity will be the defining characteristic of this week’s starting side.
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