With 10 teams vying for the top eight spots heading into the last round of the NPC regular season, Scotty Stevenson looks at all the permutations for your province this weekend.
First the bad news. If you are a fan of Auckland, Wellington, Counties-Manukau and Southland, your season ends this weekend.
For Auckland, it has been another season of despair, with two of their three wins coming against bottom three teams Counties-Manukau and Wellington. Their final assignment will be against Otago in the opening game of round ten.
Counties-Manukau won’t be playing finals football in 2026 but they can at least bask in the glory of a successful Ranfurly Shield challenge against the Northland Taniwha in Round nine. I’m not saying a shield win papers over every crack… actually I probably am saying that.
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You can beat Wellington on a good day. And a bad day. And pretty much every day in between. Quite what has happened to the Lions this season is anyone’s guess, but the fact is they are winless through nine rounds and face a stacked Taranaki side in their quest to get off the duck. It’s not looking good.
Southland broke the glass and pushed the emergency next generation button this season, and the inexperience was exposed. That’s not a bad thing for the coming years, but it was a bit too much to ask to expect the button bucks to roar like Stags in 2026. They’ll be better for this season, and you’d expect them to turn into a tougher task in the years ahead.
That leaves ten teams juking it out for the eight playoff spots, with the final finishing order all to be sorted this weekend.
North Harbour
North Harbour sit atop the table on 36 points, one point clear of Canterbury. North Harbour will only be guaranteed top spot if they can take the maximum five points from their match against Bay of Plenty this weekend. A loss, or a win without a bonus point, opens the door for Canterbury to take the top seed spot by virtue of their one-point victory when the two sides met in round eight.
HARBOUR BEST FINISH: 1st. WORST FINISH: 6th
Canterbury
Canterbury is sitting in second, after grinding through the gears in the second half of the season. This is just typical of Canterbury. And as predictable as Dimitri’s selling out of the lamb souvlaki on a Friday lunch rush. They will take top spot if:
*They beat Manawatū with a bonus point, and Harbour beats Bay of Plenty without a bonus point. (Teams tied on 40 pts, Canterbury trump with regular season victory)
*They beat Manawatū without a bonus point, and Harbour loses to Bay of Plenty
CANTERBURY BEST FINISH: 1st. WORST FINISH: 6th
Northland
Northland will be smarting from having the shield lifted from them in their final defence of the season and have to head to Stagland to finish the round robin. Invercargill has not been a happy hunting ground for the Taniwha, but they currently have the best points differential in the competition, and will be desperate to earn a home quarterfinal.
Northland can still top the table if:
*They take maximum points from Southland, and both Harbour and Canterbury lose this weekend.
NORTHLAND BEST FINISH: 1st. WORST FINISH: 7th
Hawke's Bay
Hawke's Bay got themselves a shield challenge to finish the regular season. They’ll be hoping to repeat the exploits of the 2014 team who ended the Steelers’ last shield tenure at Pukekohe 12 years ago.
In terms of the competition, the Magpies have one hand on a home quarterfinal but need a maximum point win to guarantee it. Otago sit on equal points (32) but Hawke's Bay won the regular season fixture between the two and would therefore finish ahead. A loss would be costly in more ways than one.
HAWKE'S BAY BEST FINISH: 1st. WORST FINISH: 7th
Otago
Otago may sit equal with the Magpies but need maximum points from their match against Auckland to give themselves a chance at a home quarterfinal. They would then need Hawke's Bay to fail to earn a bonus point win against the Steelers or lose the shield challenge.
Like the four teams above them, they still technically have a chance to finish top of the table, but that is the longest of long shots.
OTAGO BEST FINISH: 1st. WORST FINISH: 7th
Waikato
Waikato have a niggly ol’ finish to the round robin. Tasman have been bolstered by the return of a host of stars and they, like Waikato, are fighting to stay in the top eight. Waikato have no trump cards to play in terms of tie breaks so the more complex table permutations are irrelevant. They simply have to win to guarantee a quarterfinal and win well have any shot at a hosting slot.
WAIKATO BEST FINISH: 3rd. WORST FINISH: OUT
Taranaki
Taranaki will host the winless Wellington to end the round robin, and they will do so with Beauden and Scott Barrett repping the side together for the first time. Taranaki, like Waikato, have left themselves short of a gallop when it comes to home quarterfinal chances but, just like Waikato (with whom they are on 29 points), a convincing win will be enough to earn another week.
TARANAKI BEST FINISH: 3rd. WORST FINISH: OUT
Tasman
Tasman have had one of those seasons during which they have looked like both world beaters and strangers to championship footy. They, like Taranaki, have benefitted from the return of a number of injured performers and the inclusion of a couple of All Blacks. Waikato is not an easy assignment to finish the regular season and the jeopardy is real when you’re holding on to the final playoff spot. The tiebreakers don’t work in favour of the Mako either…
TASMAN BEST FINISH: 6th. WORST FINISH: OUT
Manawatū
Manawatū have defied the pre-season pundits this year, putting out some exceptional performances on their way to a 5-4 campaign to date. They sit two points adrift of the Mako, and therefore have no choice but to win and hope this weekend, It’s an all or nothing between the Turbos and Tasman. For either side, it’s win and in.
MANAWATŪ BEST FINISH: 6th. WORST FINISH: OUT
Bay of Plenty
The Bay of Plenty – or the Bay as they shall be known until next season – have had an injury list that reads like an episode of M*A*S*H. Reinforcements have arrived in the shape of Narawa and Fineanganofo, but it’s looking very much like too little, too late. They take on the competition leaders to end the regular season with a lotteries chance of a quarterfinal appearance.
BOP BEST FINISH: 8th. WORST FINISH: OUT
Note: There is a scenario in which Harbour, Canterbury, Northland, Hawke's Bay and Otago could all finish first equal on 37 competition points, in which case top spot would be decided on points differential.
You can see if that scenario plays out live on TVNZ1 and TVNZ+
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