Analysis: Changes will re-energise the All Blacks for the third Test against the Boks, with intrigue remaining over the bench personnel, writes Patrick McKendry.
The All Blacks quietly believe that after making a couple of changes to freshen their pack for the third Test in the rarefied air of Johannesburg they will have an advantage over the Springboks.
Playing at 1750m above sea level at FNB Stadium on the outskirts of the city does not worry the All Blacks, who stayed in Cape Town following their defeat in the second Test to mitigate against the effects of the thinner air.
The All Blacks travelled overnight to Johannesburg, while the Boks left the day after their 33-26 win at DHL Stadium. The science suggests either a long or short lead-in is the best way to prepare to play at altitude; the All Blacks have gone for the latter and may be hoping the Boks find themselves in a proverbial no-man’s land.
There is also the question of Rassie Erasmus’ senior forwards playing big minutes over the first two Tests, including flanker Pieter-Steph du Toit (160 minutes), lock Eben Eztebeth (153) and No.8 Jasper Wiese (147).
Some of the All Blacks forwards, including flanker Luke Jacobson, have played long minutes over the past fortnight too but the Chiefs man is likely to be rested in favour of Peter Lakai on Sunday morning. Hooker Codie Taylor also appears due for a weekend off.
The All Blacks will announce their team at 10pm today NZT.
After naming his team early in the week again, Erasmus has not replaced his key trio (not yet anyway), and, with the All Blacks having won the second 40 minutes of the past two Tests by a combined score of 33-12 and determined to continue playing a high-tempo game, there is potential for the Boks to run out of gas.
There appears to be a quiet confidence about the All Blacks this week and it was personified by experienced midfielder Anton Lienert-Brown, who told media: “We’ve spent a lot of time up at the highveld and we know what it brings, and in a way we think it’s an advantage to us.
“We try to play at tempo and with a fast game. We’re an incredibly fit team, so we’re looking forward to going back up there.”
The All Blacks have won eight of their last 10 Tests at altitude in Pretoria and Johannesburg, including the first Test of this tour at Ellis Park and their two previous Tests at FNB Stadium.
Dave Rennie’s men have had success in stretching the Boks’ defence in the wide channels in outscoring their opponents 9-4 in tries so far.
The inclusion of the hard-hitting Aumua and Lakai could stress them a little more up the middle.
Rennie is likely to make a change at lock, with either Josh Lord coming back from his head knock suffered in the first Test or Sam Darry starting alongside Fabian Holland. Either change will improve the All Blacks' lineout.
Tupou Vaa’i is likely to move from lock back to blindside flanker, with Ethan Blackadder a good chance for a spot on the bench.
There will be intrigue, too, on the make-up of Rennie’s back reserves. Last weekend he included back-up halfback Kyle Preston, plus midfielder Lienert-Brown and wing Josh Moorby.
One wonders whether there is a place for a potential game-breaker like Timoci Tavatavanawai or Emoni Narawa there.
Rennie has generally been risk-averse in terms of his bench selections, but, with Cam Roigard able to go the distance in the No.9 jersey, selecting Richie Mo’unga instead of Preston would also make quite the statement of intent.
The extremely fit Leroy Carter, who is likely to start on the left wing, can cover halfback if required and there are few better at taking advantage of tiring opposition forwards than Mo'unga.
Lienert-Brown hinted at what the All Blacks are aiming to do when he added: “South Africa are a big, physical team, and we think if we can play at tempo, we’ll reap the rewards later on in each half.
“The boys are doing an enormous amount of work, and there are some tough carries going on in the forwards which opens up opportunities and space in the backs. That’s what we’re seeing, and what we’ll keep doing.”
Possible All Blacks team
1. Ethan de Groot, 2. Asafo Aumua, 3. Tyrel Lomax, 4. Sam Darry, 5. Fabian Holland, 6. Tupou Vaa’i, 7. Peter Lakai, 8. Ardie Savea (c), 9. Cam Roigard, 10. Ruben Love, 11. Leroy Carter, 12. Jordie Barrett, 13. Quinn Tupaea, 14. Will Jordan, 15. Damian McKenzie.
Reserves: 16. Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17. George Bower, 18. Fletcher Newell, 19. Simon Parker, 20. Ethan Blackadder, 21. Kyle Preston, 22. Anton Lienert-Brown, 23. Timoci Tavatavanawai.
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