New Zealand should abandon its "softly, softly" approach to the Trump administration and speak out when Washington undermines Kiwi interests, a leading international relations expert says, six months into a war he describes as an illegal "quagmire".
Otago University international relations professor Robert Patman told Q+A that New Zealand had "punched below its weight" over the US and Israeli assault on Tehran.
By some estimates, the war has cost more than US$180 billion and killed thousands.
Patman, who appeared on Q+A the morning the war broke out six months ago, said the conflict had turned into exactly the trap he warned of.
"Trump finds himself facing a prospect of humiliation in the November midterms," he said.
"There's little public support in the United States for this war; more than two-thirds of Americans are against it. Mr Trump has also found that overwhelming military power doesn't translate into regime change or the sort of political outcomes he anticipated."
Patman said the New Zealand Government's stance of official neutrality had "largely tilted towards the Trump administration, in blaming Iran".
"I understand the thinking that by being constructive towards the Trump administration and overlooking being tongue-tied when it threatens countries like Canada and Denmark, that it might have advantages for us in terms of our trade with the United States, but we have not been spared the sort of tariffs that have been handed out."
He argued the approach had cost the country "moral and legal clarity".
Asked if it was time to change New Zealand's foreign policy, Patman said it was.
"I think it's time for a reset, because at the moment the Trump administration represents a radical shift," he said.
"This administration represents the biggest sea change in United States politics since Harry Truman got up in Congress in 1947 and declared America was the leader of the free world."
He said the US no longer shared a Kiwi belief in a rules-based international order, instead favouring "a world run by great powers of which America is the greatest".
"I think we should be moving towards a two-track approach, where we embrace cooperation with the United States, where our interests genuinely converge, but where the United States starts doing things like threatening key allies of ours, such as Canada, a fellow member of the Five Eyes, we do not remain tongue-tied about it. We speak out.
"That is to say, we embrace cooperation with the United States where we can. But when the United States takes steps which undermine New Zealand's interests, we do not hesitate to robustly defend those interests internationally."
Patman acknowledged the risks of angering Trump, but said New Zealand should coordinate with other middle powers including Australia rather than acting alone.
"In a sense, there are risks, but the worst risk of all is not to take any risk," he said.
"At the moment, our policy of softly, softly approach towards the Trump administration is resulting in the erosion of a rules-based international order, which we depend on, and if we continue to sit on our hands while this process continues, we run the risk that international law and the rules-based order won't be there for us when we need."
For the full interview, watch the video above
Q+A with Jack Tame is made with the support of New Zealand On Air
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