The Opportunity Party has cleared the 5% threshold for the first time in the latest 1News Verian poll — rising three points to 8% as NZ First fell by the same margin.
Today's results suggest a left bloc could form a governing coalition with Opportunity.
The poll landed as National MPs met behind closed doors at Parliament this morning before deciding they still wanted Christopher Luxon as Prime Minister.
National Party leader gains the numbers in a confidence vote four months after the previous one. (Source: 1News)
Carried out from August 8 to 11, the poll put Labour on 30%, down two points from June, with National steady on 29%. The Greens fell one point to 12%, while ACT rose three points to 9%. Te Pāti Māori dropped one point to 1%.
Exclusive: 1News Verian poll reveals crucial changes in party support - Watch on TVNZ+
On these numbers, Qiulae Wong's Opportunity would enter Parliament for the first time with nine seats — a first in a 1News Verian poll. The party has contested elections since 2017 but has never crossed the threshold or won an electorate seat.
Newcomer rises to 8% to bring it neck-and-neck with New Zealand First. (Source: 1News)
NZ First's three-point fall to 8% coincided with a drop in support for its leader Winston Peters as preferred prime minister – he was also down three points, to 7%.
It follows a stunning period for Peters, who was criticised by the Prime Minister for what Luxon called "racist" remarks that attracted an international and diplomatic outcry.
In late July, Peters told Green MP Lawrence Xu-Nan to "go back to your own country" during a parliamentary debate, prompting condemnation from political opponents and National figures, and a diplomatic protest from China.
Former Labour minister Stuart Nash also resigned as an NZ First election candidate in July following controversy over comments widely considered to be sexist.
Other parties are scathing of the “damaging” and “circus” antics from the governing party. (Source: 1News)
The polling window for this month's 1News Verian poll was shortened to enable earlier publication.
The poll's sample of 847 voters carries a maximum margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.4 percentage points, slightly wider than June's 3.1 due to a slightly smaller sample size.
Opportunity centre-stage in possible coalition blocs
Today's poll, translated into seats, gives Labour 38, National 36, the Greens 15, ACT 11, NZ First 10 and Opportunity nine, with the remaining six going to the other Māori electorate incumbents, who the 1News Verian poll assumes will hold them for seat calculations.
Those six seats are assumed under the poll's methodology as both Te Pāti Māori and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi's Te Tai Tokerau Party polled below the 5% threshold, meaning their places in the 125-seat Parliament depends on retaining their electorates.
Neither traditionally assumed blocs would command a majority in the 125-seat Parliament on those seat numbers.
Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and two other Māori electorate MPs combined would reach 59 seats, short of the 63 required, while National, ACT and NZ First would sit on 57.
A Labour-Green-Opportunity arrangement would reach 62 seats, just short, while adding Opportunity to the National-ACT-NZ First grouping would produce 66.
However, both blocs' options have narrowed over the past month.
Luxon appeared to rule out National working with Opportunity over tax policy — a call Hipkins said showed he had been "caught on the hoof" making at a press conference.
Meanwhile the Labour leader said earlier this week that his own party would not work with NZ First in any government he led.
Those positions would leave Labour needing Opportunity, the Greens and at least one other partner to govern, and National without a viable path on these numbers.
Preferred prime minister
In the preferred prime minister stakes, National leader Christopher Luxon fell one point to 17%, with Labour leader Chris Hipkins also down one on 15%. Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick was steady on 6%, while ACT leader David Seymour rose one point to 5%.
National's Erica Stanford and Labour's Kieran McAnulty each rose one point to 2%.
Stanford, the Education Minister, had been seen as one of the likeliest contenders if Luxon had been removed as leader.
She has repeatedly declined to say whether she has confidence in the Prime Minister.
The proportion of voters who answered didn't know when asked about preferred prime minister rose to 36%, the highest in a year. The proportion of voters who did not know who they would vote for, or refused to say, fell three points to 11%.
Between August 8 and August 11 2026, 847 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (400) and online using online panels (447). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.4%-points at the 95% confidence level. Party support percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 4.5%, which are reported to one decimal place. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnic identification and education level. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on party support. The results are a snapshot in time of party support, and not a prediction.
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