MetService has issued a preliminary severe weather watch ahead of Tropical Cyclone Vaianu's potential landfall this weekend, saying warnings could be upgraded to the highest red level.
Yesterday, forecasters, including MetService, said they were "keeping a close eye" on the severe subtropical low forming off the coast of the South Pacific, but it was unclear exactly how bad potential impacts may be for New Zealand.
Tropical Cyclone Vaianu (TC Vaianu) was currently deemed to be a category three tropical cyclone travelling south of Viti Levu, Fiji.
Shortly after midday, MetService updated its severe weather watches and warnings to include a "preliminary severe weather watch for Sunday covering the North Island".
"The system is forecast to head southwards towards New Zealand during the weekend bringing the potential for gales, heavy rain and hazardous coastal conditions to parts of the North Island," the forecaster said.
“We have several days until we see the impacts of Vaianu on New Zealand so this is an early severe weather watch, a heads up for significant weather this weekend," MetService meteorologist John Law said.
"Severe weather watches are normally issued one to three days ahead of a weather event, the longer lead time of these watches is an indication of the potential severity of the event."
Tropical cyclone heading for NZ strengthens to a category 3 - Watch on TVNZ+
Law said "uncertainty remains" around TC Vaianu's exact track, but if it does hit it would bring "damaging, potentially life-threatening winds".
"The locations of the most severe winds are not yet certain. As confidence in the track increases, parts of this watch will be upgraded to orange or possibly red warnings," he said.
Vaianu would also bring heavy rain, with heavy rain watches and warnings likely to be issued on Thursday for some areas, with a "high chance of upgrading to a warning".
Auckland Emergency Management said there was uncertainty about the cyclone's exact track and potential affects.
"We can however possibly expect damaging, potentially life threatening winds, heavy rain, and hazardous coastal conditions.
"This could cause damage to trees, powerlines, and unsecured structures. Driving may be difficult, especially for high-sided vehicles and motorcycles."
Last night NIWA shared an animation online depicting a range of track scenarios, with most indicating a landfall somewhere in the upper North Island on Sunday.
'Unwelcome news'
Acting Minister for Emergency Management and Recovery Chris Penk said "we know this will be unwelcome news for communities that have recently been affected by severe weather and are still recovering".
"We are asking people to take sensible precautions, and government is doing the same. MetService, NEMA and Civil Defence Emergency Management Groups, the New Zealand Defence Force, Police and Fire and Emergency New Zealand are closely monitoring Cyclone Vaianu, and NEMA stands ready to coordinate support if required."
Penk said there was still time to prepare before the conditions reach New Zealand.
People could take steps to get ready such as bringing inside or securing anything which strong winds could lift or damage, he said.
"If you have a trampoline, turn it upside down to reduce wind exposure and tie it down securely. Clear away loose items such as branches and firewood, which can become dangerous in high winds.
"Make sure drains are free of debris to help reduce the risk of flooding. Check in on neighbours, especially those who may be elderly, isolated, or without reliable communications."
He said North Islanders "should also be prepared in case of power outages".
"Have torches ready and ensure you have access to a battery or solar-powered radio so you can stay up to date with all the latest information and alerts."
"Above all, put safety first. Do not take unnecessary risks. Even if the storm is less severe than forecast, it is always better to be prepared."
Current watches and warnings
Heavy Rain Warning – Orange
Bay of Plenty west of Whakatāne, including Rotorua – 12 hours from 9am to 9pm today.
Heavy Rain Watch
Auckland and Great Barrier Island – four hours from 9am to 1pm today.
Coromandel Peninsula – six hours from 9am to 3pm today.
Waikato, Waitomo, Taumarunui and Taupō – 12 hours from 9am to 9pm today.
Bay of Plenty about and east of Whakatāne – 27 hours from 9am today to 12pm Thursday.
Strong Wind Watch
The North Island – 22 hours from 1am Sunday to 11pm Sunday.
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