An economist has warned Kiwi travellers heading across the ditch things are now more expensive than a year ago – with the exchange rate dropping to a 13-year low.
Today, NZ$1 equates to A$0.82 – down from A$0.92 in April 2025.
For Kiwi travellers heading to Australia, Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said: “The reality is that everything is going to cost about 9% more in NZ dollar terms than it did if you’d made the trip a year ago.
“Given the broader economic environment, with higher fuel and airfare prices as well, we would expect the weaker New Zealand dollar to dampen growth in the number of Kiwis heading across the Tasman for a holiday.”
Despite the current exchange rate, Travel Agents Association NZ chief executive officer Julie White said Kiwis will still take holidays, but expected a change to "how they travel".
"We tend to see people adjusting their spend by downgrading elements like cabin class or accommodation, and being a bit more considered with daily spending on things like retail and hospitality. But importantly, they still go," White said.
However, she said running parallel to this is the uncertainty around the Iran conflict.
"The key question is how long that continues and what it means for the broader cost of living. That’s the unknown factor right now, and it could influence behaviour more than the exchange rate alone."
What has caused the drop?
Kiernan said two factors have contributed to the decline in the New Zealand dollar against the Australian dollar since mid-2025 – both of which have made Australia more attractive to international investors.
NZ's worse economic performance compared to Australia has been combined with interest rates staying steady here since November while Australia has twice raised its rate this year.
Kiernan said New Zealand’s hoped-for economic recovery remains "patchy" and has been worsened by US import tariff changes announced in April.
On official interest rates, he added: “At 1.85 percentage points, the gap between our official cash rate and Australia’s cash rate target is now at its widest since 2011, with the interest rates across the Tasman providing higher returns and attracting more international investment than into New Zealand.
"So it’s not too surprising that our exchange rate with Australia is down at a 13-year low as well.”
Kiernan said this has occurred in an environment of a relatively weak New Zealand dollar anyway.
"Put simply, the geopolitical instability and potential negative effects on economic growth and investment returns globally are encouraging investors to move their money towards perceived safer investments, which tends to count against New Zealand given our relatively small size and reliance on exports as a key part of our overall growth."
Kiernan also said, as with any similar exchange rate movement, the weaker New Zealand dollar makes imports from Australia more expensive, but also increases the return that exporters get from selling goods and services to Australia.
A positive for the Aussies – and the NZ tourism sector
Conversely to Kiwi travellers – those coming from the lucky country will get more out of their money in the current environment.
“Everything is going to be cheaper while you’re here,” Kiernan said. However, he suggested the cost of getting here may dampen some of those benefits.
“To some extent, the positive effects of the weaker New Zealand dollar on Australian visitor numbers are likely to be offset by the current fuel crisis making it more expensive for people to get here in the first place.”
Kiernan also said the New Zealand tourism sector often benefits, “in a relative sense” when the Australian economy is under pressure.
“Australians looking to take an international holiday move away from long-haul travel in favour of cheaper short-haul destinations instead, such as Indonesia, New Zealand or the Pacific Islands.
“So it could well be that growth in arrivals from Australia outperforms growth in arrivals from other countries over the next few quarters.”
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